On February 3, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, dropping to $73,000 and extending its downward trend that has wiped out 41% of its value since reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. This significant pullback has sparked intense discussions about whether the cryptocurrency market is nearing a cyclical low or if it is entering a more prolonged correction phase.
This sell-off reflects growing unease across traditional financial markets. US stock indices weakened amid fears surrounding disruptions caused by artificial intelligence advancements and escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, investors began shifting away from riskier assets.
In this climate of uncertainty, funds moved back into conventional safe havens like gold and silver. Meanwhile, Bitcoin struggled to attract defensive capital inflows.
Bitcoin’s price movements continue to be closely tied to macroeconomic factors rather than operating independently from global market trends. The recent downturn coincided with renewed friction between the United States and Iran after reports emerged that an Iranian drone was shot down near a US aircraft carrier.
This event triggered roughly a 10% increase in the VIX volatility index and pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index into “extreme fear” territory.
Simultaneously, new developments in artificial intelligence—such as announcements related to Anthropic’s Claude chatbot—have reignited concerns about potential disruptions within the technology sector. This uncertainty weighed heavily on major tech stocks and further dampened appetite for speculative investments like cryptocurrencies.
While Bitcoin declined during this period, gold surged by 6.8%, and silver climbed by 10%, reinforcing their status as preferred hedges amid monetary instability and geopolitical stressors.
Gerry O’Shea, Global Head of Market Insights at Hashdex, told CNN that the divergence between Bitcoin’s performance and gold indicates investors still regard precious metals as primary safe havens during uncertain times. This shift has undermined Bitcoin’s short-term appeal as a refuge asset while adding downward pressure on its price.
Fun fact: Gold’s correlation with Bitcoin over the last decade stands at just 0.09.
This means they essentially move independently of each other—a pattern we’ve seen before during events like COVID.
Patience is key for fellow Bitcoin enthusiasts. pic.twitter.com/yBcSJVrS2U
— Jack Mallers (@jackmallers) January 29, 2026
The market remains divided regarding future directions; however several analysts warn that deeper declines may lie ahead rather than an imminent recovery.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen emphasized how crucial Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory will be:
*#BTC just fell below April 2025 lows.*
If it doesn’t rebound soon, we could face quite challenging months ahead.
A bounce would buy us time closer toward October without excessive negative price action (likely marking bottom formation).
I’m feeling bearish… pic.twitter.com/5avv8DKNjG
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) February 3, 2026
More pessimistic voices include Nehal—a popular trader on X—who suggests current patterns resemble classic bull traps where initial recoveries deceive investors before further declines occur.
Basing his analysis on historical cycles where drawdowns reached up to 86% in 2018 and around 78% in 2021, Nehal estimates another potential drop of approximately 72%, which would bring BTC prices close to $35&comma000.
This cyclical outlook holds sway despite evolving market structures such as ETF approvals and increased institutional involvement.
This chart implies we’re only halfway through what looks like a Bull Trap.
If this pattern continues,$BTC's price might plunge toward $35&comma000 come February.
The bear market phase hasn’t even truly begun yet.
An additional perspective comes from on-chain data analysis signaling what some call “bottom discovery.” Analyst CryptOpus highlighted that for the first time this cycle,BTC supply held at profit levels dropped significantly—from nearly19&period8 million coinsat peakto11&period1 million now,a40 percent reductionin profitable holdings.Historically,this scenario often precedes transitionsfromcorrectionsto freshcycle resets,suchas observedin2018whenstability returnedafterapproximatelyeightmonthsinthephase.
<P DIR="ltr">👀 #BITCOIN HAS OFF.I.C.I.A.L. E'ENTERED ITS BOTTOM DISCOVERY PHASE! For first time cycle,supply-in-profit alignswith Bottom Discovery trendline.At last year peak19&period8M <SPAN CLASS="ticker"
HREF="
HTTPS://CRYPTONEWS.NET/MARKET-CAP/BITCOIN/"
TARGET="
_BLANK"$BTC
were profitable.Today only11&period1M remain wiping out ~40 percent profitable supply.Meaning… pic&periodcom/LJ1WauPrI6
– CryptOpus (@ImCryptOpus) February4&comma026
KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS UNDER CLOSE WATCH
Nic,Coin Bureau CEO pointed outthat downside risksarewell defined technically.BTChasfaced persistentpressure sincefalling below50-week moving averagelast November.Currently,it tradesaroundMicroStrategy cost basisandnearApril lowsatabout$74&comma400.
“Breaking lower nextmajor support liesat$70&comma000justaboveprior all-time highof$69&comma000,”Nic warned.“Clean breakbelowcouldopenbear markettargetbetweenrealizedpriceand200-week moving average,inrange$55&comma700–58&comma200.”
WhereisBitcoinBottom?Sincebreaking50wMAbulltrendNovember,momentumdownward.
Two weeks ago,we also broke100wMA.
Last week,brokeETFcostbasis & true mean.
Currently trading… pic.twitter.com/T2vo4hTedF
– Nic(@nicrypto)February4,
026DIVERSE OPINIONS ON WHETHER BOTTOM IS NEAR
Michaël van de Poppe offersoptimismbelievingthebearmarketmaybeendingsoon.
I’m not selling.Fuckthat.
I think we’reattheendofbearmarket.
Also thinkGold & Silver have peakedfornow.#Bitcoin peakedQ42024 followedbynormal bearyearin2025.Cyclestartinghereon.Iremainall-in…
– Michaël van de Poppe(@CryptoMichNL)February3,
026Meanwhile,Dave Battagliafocusesonliquidation dynamicsnoting irrational conditionsbelow85Kwithsignificant liquiditygaps.Panic sellersinstitutionalorwhales likelyexitedsuboptimalprices.HecontrastedthiswithOctober10Binance crashdescribingitstructurallycleaner.Below90Kto100Kmassiveshortdensity14:1 puts-to-callsimbalanceusuallysignalsstrongbottom,”Battaglia said.
SYNOPSIS
Bitcoin’s fallto73000revivedconcernsaboutdeepercorrection.Macro uncertaintiesgeopolitical strainsmixedon-chaindataleavesmarketsplitbetweendifferentoutlooks.Forthcomingweekswillclarifyifcurrentpauseistemporaryorstartofanewtrendfor26.ThepostIsBitcoinPriceHeadedLower?AnalystsDebateMuchDeeperFallappearedfirstonBeInCrypto.