Bitcoin treasury companies have emerged as significant players in the current market cycle, driving demand. Today, 86 publicly listed companies collectively hold over 1 million BTC on their balance sheets. This trend began with MSTR (Strategy) in 2020 and has since expanded across various corporations, with new participants joining frequently. However, a detailed analysis of their purchasing patterns suggests that many could possess substantially more Bitcoin now if they had adhered to a straightforward, rules-based accumulation strategy.
MSTR (Strategy) stands out as the leading corporate holder of Bitcoin, possessing nearly 640,000 BTC. Altogether, top public Bitcoin treasury firms have effectively sequestered over 1 million BTC from circulation—permanently reducing liquid supply and enhancing Bitcoin’s monetary value (assuming they don’t sell!). While this development has positively impacted Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics significantly, data indicates that many acquisitions were made during overheated market phases at local peaks.
Figure 1: Public treasury entities currently own more than one million BTC.
Consider MSTR’s actions as an illustration. The company made substantial investments in late 2024 when Bitcoin exceeded $70,000 following ETF approvals—a common pattern among treasuries who often front-load purchases during euphoric periods.
Figure 2: Treasury acquisitions tend to cluster around peak cycles rather than troughs.
This behavior is understandable since capital is easier to raise amid rising prices and positive sentiment; however, it results in frequent overpayment by these firms. Backtesting reveals that waiting for even minor pullbacks could have saved them between 10–30% on average compared to actual entry prices.
A Simple Approach Using MVRV Ratio
Figure 3: MVRV-based signals can effectively time BTC accumulation.
If purchases were avoided when the MVRV ratio was within its top 20% (a proxy for overvaluation), deploying capital during cooler periods would mean MSTR alone holds approximately $$$$
. By avoiding buying immediately after triple-digit percentage gains within weeks,&;,, this approach doesn’t attempt exact bottom timing nor rely on subjective judgment but instead utilizes rolling percentile thresholds preventing allocations amid bull markets’ most overheated phases.
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