Fu Rao, the Executive Director of the Hong Kong International New Economy Research Institute, has put forth an analysis titled “Speculative Characteristics Weaken, Bitcoin Volatility Stabilizes,” published in Ta Kung Pao. He asserts that the trajectory of Bitcoin’s growth in 2025 markedly contrasts with its previous cycles.
Rao attributes this shift primarily to the widespread introduction of spot ETFs, which have made Bitcoin more accessible to both institutional and retail investors. This development has broadened the base for price formation and contributed to a more stable volatility landscape compared to earlier periods.
Additionally, his analysis points out that recent price corrections have been relatively mild when juxtaposed with sharp declines seen over the last four to five years. Rao posits that this phenomenon may be influenced by macroeconomic factors affecting traditional investment approaches.
Looking ahead to 2026, market sentiments appear divided. Some analysts predict a potential significant correction for Bitcoin, suggesting it could revert to lower price levels. Conversely, others are optimistic about its prospects, forecasting a rise up to $150,000 by year-end and even targeting $250,000 in 2027.
Rao further noted that while Bitcoin is increasingly integrated into conventional financial systems, achieving social acceptance comparable to gold will require time—estimated at around five to ten years according to his findings.
*This should not be considered as investment advice.