Recently, there has been a growing trend to disregard bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle, which traditionally brings about predictable periods of rapid growth followed by significant declines.
In the last week alone, influential figures like Matt Hougan from Bitwise and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest have publicly questioned the relevance of this cycle. They argue that with the rise of ETFs and increasing regulatory as well as institutional acceptance, bitcoin has become integrated into mainstream finance. Consequently, they believe it no longer needs to follow the historical patterns observed in earlier years.
Understanding the Four-Year Cycle
The four-year cycle is a recurring price pattern tied closely to bitcoin’s halving events—occurring approximately every four years—where mining rewards are cut in half. This reduction creates a supply shortage that typically triggers substantial price increases.
After these sharp upward movements come steep corrections often around 80%, followed by gradual gains leading up to the next halving event.
Technical analysts often highlight bull runs and crashes after halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 as evidence that history repeats itself. They suggest that similar dynamics are unfolding for the upcoming 2024 halving: an intense rally peaking near $125,000 in October 2025 before entering another bear market phase—the current state of affairs.
Fidelity’s Perspective: Timmer’s Analysis
A pioneer among traditional investors embracing bitcoin early on is Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director. He remains convinced that data charts still support the validity of this four-year rhythm.
“When aligning all previous bull markets visually,” Timmer remarked recently, “the peak at $125,000 after roughly 145 weeks fits expectations quite well.”
Looking ahead to what lies beyond this peak phase—often referred to as ‘winter’—Timmer pointed out that past bear markets have generally lasted about one year. He speculates that 2026 might serve as an ‘off year’ for bitcoin activity. According to him, key support levels currently lie between $65,000 and $75,000.