Jurrien Timmer, who leads global macro strategy at Fidelity Investments, recently described Bitcoin as the sole underperformer this year.
In a social media update, Timmer remarked that Bitcoin stands out as the only asset with negative returns over the period.
He pointed out that what was once seen as a supportive factor—Bitcoin treasury firms generating yield—is now creating additional downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
The analyst explained, “The previously perceived advantage from Bitcoin Treasury companies providing a ‘yield’ has transformed into a potential obstacle.”
“Advanced” Bull Market
Technical indicators reveal that Bitcoin has slipped below an important upward trendline, signaling weakening momentum and sparking speculation about whether its current four-year cycle is concluding.
Timmer observed, “Examining the changing wave patterns of Bitcoin’s increasingly mature network curve suggests that the latest bull run—from roughly $16,000 in 2022—appears quite advanced.”
The recurring cycles since 2010 show diminishing amplitude but extended duration, implying each successive phase is slowing down.
Broader Economic Environment
Timmer highlighted that as we approach year-end, markets benefit from robust earnings growth and improved sentiment following corrections of speculative excesses alongside a more accommodating Federal Reserve policy.
Stronger-than-anticipated corporate profits have bolstered equity markets. In contrast, Bitcoin’s lagging performance relative to stocks is notably disappointing.
The reduction in interest rates has encouraged borrowing and investment activities; however, these conditions have not translated into gains for Bitcoin.
Additionally, low volatility in traditional fixed-income and currency markets diminishes investors’ motivation to seek alternatives such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.