The value of Bitcoin plummeted dramatically from its peak of over $126,000 in October 2025 to around $60,000 by early February, marking a staggering decline of 52%. This significant drop has led many analysts to categorize the cryptocurrency as being in a bear market, with some forecasting even steeper declines for $BTC.
Compounding the situation was the recent military conflict involving Israel and the USA against Iran, which caused Bitcoin’s price to hit local lows. However, it quickly rebounded in subsequent days and soared to a monthly high of $74,000.
Despite failing to maintain that level, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $70,000—over 15% higher than its low point in early February. This prompted us to inquire with Gemini and ChatGPT about their perspectives on whether $BTC has reached its lowest point during this cycle.
Is The Bottom Reached?
ChatGPT acknowledged that experiencing a decline exceeding 50% is quite common during corrections within Bitcoin bull cycles and does not necessarily indicate an extended bear market phase. It pointed out that the low of $60,000 aligns historically as a typical mid-cycle shakeout.
The AI estimated a 45% probability that this marks the bottom for Bitcoin. If accurate, it would suggest that the crash observed in early February represented “the final capitulation flush.” Factors supporting this view include completion of a substantial correction by half (50%), improvements in liquidity alongside overall sentiment shifts and an influx of strong buyers at these price levels.
If indeed $BTC‘s bottom has been established here, subsequent movements could see prices rise towards $90,000 before surpassing the critical psychological barrier at $100K. Following this could be what’s termed as “parabolic phase,” where bold predictions suggest potential new all-time highs ranging between $180K and $220K within this year.
Gemini largely concurred with this assessment regarding reaching potential lows but also indicated there have already been several leverage crashes recently:
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“During that low period in February ,Bitcoin’s momentum indicators along with its distance from its 200-day moving average reached oversold conditions we haven’t witnessed since either the bear market of 2022 or following FTX collapse. The selling pressure simply ran out.”
No Bottom Yet?
While both AIs leaned towards suggesting it’s likely that $BTC may have found its bottom already; they did not dismiss further corrections if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further.
The team at Gemini noted how investors are shifting away from speculative tech stocks amid ongoing inflation concerns coupled with geopolitical tensions—implying institutional interest for riskier assets remains “currently shaky.”
A scenario presented by ChatGPT included only a 20% chance for “another severe flush,” where bearish forces might regain control leading BTC downwards into fresh lows ranging between approximately$48K-$52K. Nonetheless,it mentioned there exists only minimal likelihood (very slight)of an extreme panic dip down toward$42k but such movement would probably be fleeting.”