CryptoQuant, a firm specializing in cryptocurrency data analysis, has released an insightful on-chain examination of Bitcoin’s current pricing dynamics.
The report highlights that a crucial cost threshold—one that has historically separated bullish from bearish markets throughout previous cycles—has now been breached.
Specifically, CryptoQuant focuses on the average acquisition price of a “medium-weighted” investor segment. This group consists of holders possessing between 10 and 10,000 bitcoins who have transacted their coins within the past one to three months. These investors are considered influential market participants due to their active trading behavior combined with substantial holdings.
Presently, this cohort’s average cost basis stands near $89,822. However, Bitcoin’s market price has failed to surpass this level since mid-January 2026.
The significance of this benchmark is underscored by historical context: during the bull run in 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time peak around $67,551 in November, these medium-weighted investors had an average entry price close to $33,700.
Throughout the subsequent mid-cycle correction phase back then, prices never dipped below that cost point — helping maintain positive sentiment among traders. But by June 2022 when Bitcoin plunged roughly 30% beneath this threshold down to about $18,945—the bear market was officially confirmed.
This current cycle diverges notably from past patterns. By late 2025 the same investor group’s average purchase price climbed up to approximately $94,000; yet Bitcoin’s value dropped below it around mid-December and hasn’t recovered since.
As of now, $BTC is trading near $66,424 — nearly 26% under these active investors’ break-even point.
The analysis suggests that sustained losses within this key segment often correlate with extended bearish phases in Bitcoin markets. Comparisons drawn with the correction seen in 2021 miss an important nuance: at that time these medium-sized holders remained profitable overall whereas today they face significant unrealized losses.
CryptoQuant concludes that for on-chain metrics and market health indicators to improve meaningfully, Bitcoin must reclaim and hold above approximately $89,800.
*Please note: This information does not constitute financial advice.*