The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday confirmed the emergence of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is likely to strengthen further during the ongoing southwest monsoon season (June-September).
The latest monsoon mission coupled forecast system plume and probability forecasts suggest a ‘moderate to strong’ El Niño conditions during the monsoon season, the met department stated. “Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific exceeded the El Nino threshold in June 2026,” IMD stated.
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El Nino is a natural climate pattern associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In India, it has been linked with weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, and a decline in crop production.
Due to the adverse impact of El-Nino, IMD last month downgraded its forecast of ‘below normal’ southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), down from 92% as stated in April, with a high 84% chance that the rains will fall in the ‘deficient to below normal’ range.
Critical Kharif Sowing
The worrying part of the forecast was that rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be ‘below normal’ at less than 94% of LPA.
These southwest monsoon rains during their four-month sojourn, account for around 75% of the country’s annual precipitation. Adequate rainfall during monsoon boosts kharif crop prospects while providing adequate soil moisture for rabi crops.
The met department stated that while weak El Nino conditions are likely in June, ‘weak to moderate’ conditions would prevail subsequently in the July-August period. In September, a ‘moderate to strong’ El Nino conditions may prevail.
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Historical Precedents
The last occurrence of El Nino conditions was in 2023. Since 2000, similar conditions developed in 2002, 2009 and 2015, all of which adversely impacted monsoon rains and caused a fall in crop production.
The met office also stated that ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which aid monsoon progress, are currently present over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast indicates these conditions are likely to continue till the end of the monsoon season.
IMD stated that monsoon, after its onset over Kerala coast on June 4, further advanced into some more parts of West Bengal, Bihar, and some parts of Odisha and Jharkhand on Friday.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated earlier this week that the government has identified 197 districts across the country as most vulnerable to the impact of El Nino and the ministry is preparing state-wise contingency plans.
TOPICSEl NinoMonsoon SessionThis article was first uploaded on June twelve, twenty twenty-six, at twenty-five minutes past ten in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd