Could Bitcoin Face a Massive 80% Decline? Insights from a Chinese Analyst on Whale Activity in Historical Bear Markets

Chinese blockchain analyst Murphy has recently highlighted the actions of Bitcoin (BTC) whales in his latest report.

The analysis reveals that whale wallets, each containing at least 100 BTC, collectively hold 12.17 million BTC, which accounts for 61% of the total supply in circulation. This is comparable to the peak levels observed during the bull market of 2021 and significantly higher than the approximately 10 million BTC recorded during the bull cycle of 2017.

Murphy notes that seasoned investors have transitioned their assets to new institutional players this cycle, altering market dynamics. Nevertheless, whether whales act out of optimism or fear will continue to shape Bitcoin’s future cycles between bullish and bearish trends.

Back in 2017–2018, as Bitcoin’s price began its descent from $19,587, whales were shedding an average of $1 billion daily. This relentless selling pressure led to an enormous crash by about 80%, ushering in a prolonged bear market lasting a year.

The magnitude of losses escalated further between 2021 and 2022. On May 19, 2021 alone—a day marked by significant downturn—$3 billion was lost by whales; a staggering $4 billion vanished during the Luna collapse. 

Consecutive days with losses exceeding $2 billion signaled that this bull run had come to an end.

This current cycle presents a contrasting scenario according to Murphy. 

A single-day loss on August 5, 2024, tallying up at $$2 billion represented one intense selling panic thus far while Trump’s tariff wars reignited fears causing more restrained daily declines around $$1.1 billion &; $800 million respectively across February-April,” 2w.. ., 0s:as,d:a:s{}

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The most recent downturn on October&;11,”twenty-twentysixteen”, saw remarkable composure among whale investors who only incurred losses amounting up tο just over four hundred mιllion dollars- indicating what could be seen as matured investor psychology now prevailing within these circles today!

Thus Murphy concludes it seems unlikely we’ll witness another extended deep bear phase akin past experiences involving drops near eighty percent again anytime soon under present conditions!

*This does not constitute financial advice.*