Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which faced significant drops in October and November against initial predictions, have recently begun to show signs of recovery.
This resurgence has reignited hopes for a robust and sustained surge beyond the $100,000 mark. Analysts from Coinbase Institutional have presented an optimistic outlook for December.
Experts suggest that the market correction observed in November has set the stage for a rebound as the year closes. They attribute this to reduced corporate speculation and a return to market stability.
According to Coinbase analysts, the systemic leverage ratio—a metric that measures institutional speculative activity—has sharply declined from 10% in November down to about 4%, now showing signs of stabilization.
At this juncture, analysts believe Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have reset after enduring two months of intense downward pressure, positioning themselves well for an upward trend.
The latest data indicates a potential bullish rally could unfold in December following these recent steep declines.
“A difficult November might be setting up an unforgettable December,” they remarked.
This is because lower leverage levels typically indicate healthier markets with less susceptibility to abrupt price drops.
Coinbase experts also highlighted several important signals emerging throughout November:
- The total number of open positions on BTC/ETH/SOL perpetual futures contracts dropped by 16% month-over-month. This suggests fewer leveraged trades remain active, reducing overall leverage risk.
- During this period, substantial withdrawals occurred from US spot ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows near $3.5 billion while Ethereum ETFs experienced around $1.4 billion in redemptions as major investors pulled back funds.
Rather than signaling collapse, Coinbase interprets these moves as evidence that markets are de-leveraging and stabilizing—institutions are pausing rather than exiting entirely.
What Does December Hold for Bitcoin?
Historical trends reveal that post-halving bull markets often deliver strong returns during December—with average gains around 25% for Bitcoin during such periods.
However, looking ahead to 2025 presents some uncertainty since recent years defied typical seasonal patterns: October and November—which usually see notable price increases—were instead among the weakest months since 2018.
In summary, despite experiencing sharp downturns recently, Coinbase maintains that if macroeconomic conditions stay favorable, a cleaner and more stable market environment could enable a powerful recovery toward year-end.
* This content does not constitute investment advice.