Lin Han, the founder of the cryptocurrency platform Gate, recently shared his insights on the ongoing debate about whether we are entering a bear market or witnessing a bullish trend. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s halving event no longer holds the same weight it once did and highlighted how cryptocurrencies are increasingly intertwined with both the US stock market and the broader global economy.
Han explained that while the so-called “four-year cycle” linked to Bitcoin halving was once a dominant force shaping market behavior, its influence has diminished significantly due to limited new coin supply. He pointed out that Bitcoin is no longer an isolated ecosystem; instead, it now behaves like other risk assets influenced by movements in US equities and worldwide economic conditions.
According to Han, a pivotal shift occurred around 2020 during events such as DeFi’s surge in popularity. However, this momentum slowed sharply throughout 2022 amid worsening global economic factors following the pandemic. Describing 2022 through early 2023 as relatively subdued periods for crypto markets, he noted renewed optimism later in 2023 fueled by ETF approvals and hopes for economic recovery.
Han expressed skepticism about experiencing another severe bear market akin to previous cycles. Even if prices retrace from projected highs between $100,000 and $120,000 down to approximately $80,000-$90,000 during corrections, he considers these levels still quite robust. While some reports suggested volume declines in November trading activity on his exchange were minimal according to internal data.
Looking ahead, Han identified potential risks tied to concerns over an AI investment bubble expanding further. He observed significant capital flowing into data centers and computing infrastructure this year but cautioned that profitability remains uncertain for many large-scale projects despite strong performances from companies like Nvidia focused on infrastructure technology.
This commentary does not constitute financial advice.