Matrixport’s latest weekly analysis reveals that Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a decline since mid-October 2025.
The report highlights growing caution among investors, especially with the resurgence of the so-called “four-year cycle” theory. Many market participants anticipate that Bitcoin could face continued downward pressure throughout 2026.
Recent months have seen reduced volatility, lower leverage usage, and diminished risk appetite, all contributing to downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. The report emphasizes a notable shift in market dynamics by examining derivatives activity, ETF inflows and outflows, as well as technical signals. Additionally, the imminent expiration of the largest-ever Bitcoin option contract has made strike price distribution an essential metric for gauging both market stress and potential entry points.
Matrixport also points out that investors typically adopt a more cautious stance toward year-end. This period has witnessed a marked drop in risk tolerance. Nevertheless, the reallocation of capital and recalibration of risk budgets at the start of a new year may trigger quicker improvements in overall sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, while bearish momentum appears to be easing somewhat, there is still no strong consensus favoring bullish trends. The report suggests that markets might be transitioning from an environment dominated by “greater downside risks” to one where “downside is contained but positive catalysts are necessary for upward movement.”
Supporting this cautious view are current Bitcoin valuations alongside weekly stochastic indicators. With these indicators dipping near 17%, it implies BTC could be oversold at present; thus short-term rebounds remain possible but would likely require significant triggers to materialize.
*This content does not constitute financial advice.