Bob Loukas, a well-known trader with over three decades of experience in the financial markets and the creator of the 60-day cycle theory for $BTC, shared his latest analysis on Bitcoin’s price this Monday. In stark contrast to the wave of optimistic forecasts that emerged following the weekend, Loukas’s assessment leans towards a more pessimistic outlook.
In his commentary accompanying the analysis, Loukas pointed out that despite Bitcoin being significantly oversold, its weekly chart still appears “terrible.” He suggests that visually it seems as though Bitcoin is precariously positioned and may be poised for another substantial decline. His price target for Bitcoin stands at approximately $49,000 per $BTC.
Loukas argues business cycles and halving events do not influence Bitcoin prices
Responding to those who attempted to defend their views by referencing business cycle indicators, Loukas dismissed these arguments as what he considers “the biggest cope” within crypto discussions. Furthermore, he perceives no indications of an early market reaction related to halving events; in his opinion, these occurrences are unrelated to current movements on Bitcoin’s price chart.
Despite being deeply oversold, this weekly chart remains dreadful and visually feels like it’s hanging by a thread while preparing for another significant drop.
— Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) March 2, 2026
According to Loukas’s perspective, initial capital influx was driven by factors such as ETF approvals and supportive government policies toward crypto alongside regulatory shifts; however he believes that fundamentally it has always been part of a bear market cycle.
Currently,$BTC is still roughly 25% away from reaching Loukas’s forecasted figure. If his predictions hold true, this could imply that from its peak in October 2025 onwards,Bitcoin might experience a decline exceeding 60%.
Nevertheless,in contrast with his bearish stance on Bitcoin at present,Loukas also mentioned today in another post that he continues to maintain long positions in stocks at this time.He bases this decision on tightening Bollinger Bands which suggest an impending breakdown possibility.The trader currently maintains an optimistic view on stocks while remaining negative about $BTC.