Bitwise, a cryptocurrency management firm, suggests that Bitcoin’s price may hit its lowest point sooner than many investors expect.
A recent report from the company’s European research division indicates that the commonly accepted four-year cycle model might not hold true this time around.
André Dragosch, who leads research at Bitwise Europe, pointed out that according to the conventional four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin is projected to peak in October 2025 and reach its trough by October 2026. However, Dragosch believes this timeline is deeply rooted in investor sentiment.
“This belief has become firmly established among investors. The expectation for an eight-month timeframe has turned into a widely held view,” stated Dragosch. He argued that if many investors are fixated on the same timeline, it could accelerate market movements.
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has generally experienced cycles of growth and decline following its halving event every four years. Historically speaking, prices tend to peak within 12–18 months post-halving before entering a downturn lasting about a year.
In light of this context, Bitcoin—having reached an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025—is anticipated to bottom out around October 2026 based on traditional models. Currently, it trades roughly 50% below that peak value.
Dragosch noted that “the latest market peak closely aligned with the established four-year cycle pattern.” Nevertheless, Bitwise warns of potential risks here; if most investors are anticipating October 2026 as the low point for prices, more astute traders might act on this expectation and make purchases earlier than anticipated.
If such a scenario unfolds where most participants wait until late-2026 while proactive investors step in beforehand—potentially causing a bottom formation as early as June or July of that year—it would deviate from traditional expectations. Dragosch referred to this phenomenon as “the chance for early buying based on historical timing rules.”
*This content does not constitute investment advice.