The cryptocurrency derivatives analytics platform, GreeksLive, has announced the commencement of the first Bitcoin options expiration for January 2026, highlighting a prevailing cautious sentiment across the market.
Data reveals that over a quarter of all open positions are set to expire during tomorrow’s scheduled expiration event.
In its latest report, GreeksLive explained that the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates as expected, coupled with a lack of any major catalysts likely to influence markets imminently, has resulted in subdued price action. Within this context, Bitcoin’s price remained largely sideways while implied volatility (IV) in the options market continued its downward trajectory.
The analysis further indicates that Bitcoin entered a tight consolidation phase during the latter half of this month. The $90,000 mark emerged as significant resistance whereas support was closely monitored near $86,000—a level breached earlier today.
Additionally, GreeksLive observed an uptick in institutional investors transferring their Bitcoin assets onto exchanges recently. This trend has intensified liquidity pressures within crypto markets and coincided with underperformance among US equities linked to cryptocurrencies. The report suggests growing caution and pessimism among market participants amid escalating geopolitical tensions and rising narratives fueled by fear, uncertainty & doubt (FUD).
Attention now turns toward tomorrow’s key event: at 11:00 AM Turkish time (08:00 UTC), approximately $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin option contracts will expire—marking this as the largest expiry volume recorded so far this year. The “maximum pain” price point—where most contracts are expected to expire worthless—is estimated near $90,000.
Market makers typically attempt to steer prices toward such equilibrium levels; however, analysts highlight that call options dominate open interest significantly. This imbalance could provoke intense hedging activity if prices surge around $90K suddenly—potentially causing swift and volatile moves within short timeframes.
This content does not constitute financial advice.