Willy Woo, a prominent crypto trader and entrepreneur, recently took to Twitter to share his insights on the current state of the cryptocurrency market. He provided his perspective on when he anticipates the ongoing bear market might conclude, outlining a potential worst-case scenario for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Woo’s predictions regarding the end of this bearish phase align with an analysis released by CryptoQuant earlier today.
Potential Worst-Case Scenario for Bitcoin and a Theoretical Decline to $16,000
The silver lining in Woo’s analysis is his belief that the selling pressure from Bitcoin investors is beginning to wane. He suggests that moving forward, Bitcoin may trade within a sideways range for about a month. While there could be an uptick towards the mid-$70,000s during this period, he cautions that such gains would likely face resistance.
This downward sell-off by investors appears to have run its course, allowing prices some breathing room to consolidate sideways for perhaps a month; even if there’s a rebound into the mid-70s range, it will probably be rejected.
This situation arises because overall market sentiment remains significantly bearish across both spot and futures markets… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026
According to Woo’s assessment, one major factor contributing to this outlook is that “the broader regime is heavily bearish,” indicating that liquidity is being drained from both spot and futures markets in crypto. He emphasized that it’s unlikely for Bitcoin prices to surge while liquidity sources remain pessimistic. Alongside his tweet was an accompanying chart illustrating the Bitcoin Flow Model.
Woo offered what he described as “an educated guess,” suggesting that Q4 of this year could mark an ideal time frame for concluding this bearish trend. Regarding any resurgence of bullish momentum in the future, he believes it may materialize during either Q1 or Q2 of 2027. However, before any upward movement occurs, it’s possible Bitcoin could hit around $45,000—a typical bottom point—by late Q4 this year.
Additonally,Woo considered another scenario which might not be very probable but still significant; should there be drastic negative shifts in global macroeconomic conditions affecting cryptocurrencies broadly,Bitcoin could potentially plummet downwards seeking support at approximately $16K per coin.
CryptoQuant Identifies High Probability Window for Potential Bottoming Out of Bitcoin
The blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has analyzed historical data from three previous halvings (2012 ,2016 ,and 2020)to project when BTC prices might reverse following April’s halving event scheduled in 2024 .
Their findings suggest three possible timelines pointing towards June ,September,and October respectively as periods where BTC may reach its lowest point before beginning recovery . This aligns with historical patterns observed between 777-925 days post-halving events .
A bottom takes time.
If we see similar trends as past cycles starting April19th ,2024:
-2012 cycle (777 days) → June4th ,2026
-2016 cycle (889 days) → September24th ,2026
-2020 cycle(925days )→October30th ,2026.
This establishes our broader timeframe window extending into June through Decemberof twenty-six… pic.twitter.com/8w5WzgGNXb
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February26th,two thousand twenty-six