Bitcoin is currently approaching a crucial long-term support level on its weekly chart, while short-term analysis suggests the possibility of an upward movement. The key areas that traders are monitoring include the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and the retracement zone around $67,260.
Bitcoin Approaches 200-Week Moving Average Amid Weakening Weekly Momentum
The cryptocurrency is trading below several significant long-term trend indicators, with particular attention on the 200-week SMA at approximately $58,224. Additional support levels include the 250-week SMA near $55,592, the 300-week SMA close to $50,550, as well as further averages at $44,579 and $39,689 for the 350- and 400-week SMAs respectively. This confluence of moving averages represents critical points where Bitcoin’s price may find sustained support or face further declines.
Throughout 2024 and into early 2025, Bitcoin maintained a position comfortably above these ascending averages during its rally toward six figures. However, recent downward pressure has brought prices closer to this pivotal 200-week SMA—a benchmark often regarded by traders as an indicator of long-term trend health. Historically speaking, weekly closes near this line have signaled moments when bearish momentum encountered substantial underlying support.
Despite this short-term weakening in price action around these levels—the gap between current price and the key moving average narrowing—the overall alignment of shorter-duration SMAs above longer ones still reflects a prevailing upward trajectory over extended periods. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can hold this line or if it will succumb to increased selling pressure.
Support Holds Near Retracement Zone While Wave Analysis Suggests Potential Upside
On shorter timeframes such as the fifteen-minute BTCUSD chart analyzed by market experts on social platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Bitcoin found notable reaction around $67,260—corresponding closely with a full retracement level marked at one point zero (1.0). Price stabilized within a Fibonacci retracement range bounded by roughly $68,018 (0.5 level) and about $67,337 (0.618 level), completing what analysts interpret as an ABC corrective pattern within wave-(2).
This corrective phase aligns well with previous projections derived from earlier impulse waves in Bitcoin’s price movement history. Prior to this correction phase was a breakout from a descending channel followed by pullback into prior demand zones now acting decisively for future directionality.
If prices fail to maintain above current bases inside these Fibonacci pockets—especially below deeper retracements such as near $66,378 (0.786) or even down toward approximately $64,395—downside risks could materialize more prominently.
Conversely though technical targets mapped using Fibonacci extensions beyond recent swing highs suggest potential upside moves targeting extensions like those at ratios of about 1.236 up through higher levels including roughly 1.38 and even reaching towards classic wave extension marks near approximately 1.618 times prior moves.
The ongoing technical narrative depends heavily on whether prices remain supported above prior swing lows anchoring wave-(2). Should that structure hold firm intact going forward; it would keep alive bullish scenarios projecting continued advance along wave-(3).