Headline: Bitcoin Faces Potential Fifth Consecutive Monthly Decline, Reflecting Its Shift Toward a Rates-Driven Asset
Bitcoin is on track to record its fifth straight monthly loss if February ends in the red, marking its longest losing streak since 2018. This ongoing downturn highlights a significant transformation: post-ETF Bitcoin now behaves more like an asset influenced by interest rates and risk sentiment rather than purely crypto-specific factors.
The cryptocurrency has experienced declines for four consecutive months, with mid-February data indicating another negative close is likely. Should this trend continue through March without reclaiming the $80,000 level, Bitcoin would match its worst performance period ever recorded.
Historical data reveals that from October 2025 to January 2026, each month closed lower—with November suffering the steepest drop during that span. February began near $78,626 but slid into the high $60,000s by mid-month.
At present (press time), Bitcoin trades around $68,800—approximately 44–45% below its October peak of $126,000—and down roughly 12.6% for February alone.
The longest monthly decline streak on record lasted six months between January 2017 and August 2018; if March closes negatively as well, this new stretch will tie that historic low point.
Interest Rate Outlook and ETF Flow Dynamics
This downward momentum coincides with shifts in market expectations about interest rates. According to Ned Davis Research figures cited by Business Insider, investors remain sensitive to any incremental changes in policies signaling “higher for longer” interest rates.
Fed funds futures currently suggest a high probability of no rate changes until at least March 2026. Persistently tight monetary policy raises challenges for duration-sensitive investments like Bitcoin—which lately has shown correlations consistent with macroeconomic beta exposure within diversified portfolios—especially when equity market volatility spikes.
This macroeconomic influence is further reinforced by recent spot Bitcoin ETF activity. Over the past three weeks alone, these ETFs have seen approximately $2 billion in net outflows—with multiple single-day withdrawals reaching hundreds of millions—indicating sustained investor caution or repositioning pressures within these vehicles.
The Role of On-Chain Cost Basis Levels
Glassnode’s latest analysis frames current price action as a tug-of-war between overhead supply resistance and cost-basis support levels held by holders on-chain.
The True Market Mean sits near $80,200 and acts as significant resistance overhead; meanwhile the Realized Price around $55,800 historically serves as key support during deeper corrections or “re-engagement” zones where buyers step back in strongly after sell-offs.
A concentrated cost-basis range exists between roughly $66,900 and $70,600, representing a critical battleground where holders either defend their average entry points or capitulate into less liquid price areas below this band—a vital short-term indicator over coming months aligned with broader market commentary trends.
Potential Market Scenarios Over Next Few Months:
| Scenario (4–12 Weeks) | Conditions Required | Key Levels (Sources) | Price Range Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilization & Sideways Trading | Sustained slowdown in outflows; no further tightening from macro factors; buyers defend cost basis zone | $66, 900–$70, 600 support; ~$80, 200 resistance (Glassnode) |
$65, 000–$82, 000 (Glassnode) |
| Deeper Deleveraging & Sell-Off Expansion |
If cost basis fails, risk-off sentiment continues, and forced selling intensifies |
$60, 000 retest then ~$55, 800 realized price (Glassnode); $55,$60K zone (Barron’s) | ~ $55 ,& nbsp ;00 -& nbsp ;$60 ,& nbsp ;00 , with potential lower tails under stress conditions |
| Recovery & Reclaiming Ground Macro environment improves, Reclaim ~$80, ~$80, |
The downside scenarios being discussed are explicitly linked to broader macroeconomic trends.
Ned Davis Research highlighted via Business Insider that historical bear markets averaged drawdowns near ∞∞∞% over approximately seven months (~225 days), which could push bitcoin toward about $,1,000if such patterns repeat.
Another report referenced an analyst from Zacks projecting bitcoin might reach $,0,0,0s within three-to-six months based on liquidity dynamics and previous winter durations.
These projections are not consensus forecasts but serve as boundaries illustrating how far macro-driven de-risking may extend amid one-sided flows.
For late February specifically,the calendar itself becomes crucial:
A monthly close deep in red would confirm five consecutive losing periods while reinforcing how ETF flow patterns,on-chain holder behavior,and Fed fund futures collectively position bitcoin more like an instrument tied closely to interest rate movementsand broad risk appetite rather than an isolated crypto asset class.
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