Bitcoin is closing the year with a decline of nearly 10%, leaving many investors confused and uncertain. Expectations for 2025 were high, anticipating significant developments such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased institutional involvement, and heightened political focus.
However, the price has not met these optimistic forecasts, causing apprehension within the market. Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy and a long-standing advocate for Bitcoin, argues that this interpretation might be misguided. He views 2025 not as a setback but rather as groundwork being laid for future progress.
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Are More Robust Than Ever
During a recent appearance on Alex Thorn’s podcast, Saylor emphasized that the last year could represent one of the most critical periods in Bitcoin’s history from a fundamental standpoint.
“The past twelve months have arguably been the strongest in terms of fundamentals throughout our industry's history. The changes since December are truly remarkable,” Saylor stated.
Saylor highlighted that while large institutions like BlackRock and publicly traded companies attract much attention, approximately 85% of all Bitcoins remain held by early adopters whose identities mostly remain anonymous. Additionally, derivatives markets—especially leveraged perpetual contracts—play an outsized role in influencing short-term price fluctuations.
This dynamic means that Bitcoin’s valuation often reflects trader sentiment and leverage effects more than actual spot demand—even amid robust adoption trends.
The Reason Behind Bitcoin’s Tepid Reaction to Positive Developments
The underwhelming performance is less about issues unique to cryptocurrency itself and more connected to wider macroeconomic factors.
Historically speaking, Bitcoin tends to thrive when economic activity exceeds key thresholds like the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) level of 50. Yet globally we have seen contractionary conditions persist for nearly three years straight.
“Bitcoin acts like a liquidity gauge: it rises when money is easy but falls when liquidity tightens,” analyst Nico recently observed.
This perspective suggests that current subdued price movements likely reflect constrained liquidity environments rather than deteriorating fundamental value propositions within crypto markets.
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Saylor also shared encouraging news regarding institutional engagement anticipated next year:
“Rumors indicate major U.S.-based banks will begin purchasing bitcoin directly,
offering custody services along with credit issuance backed by native bitcoin assets during H1
of 2026.”
This follows discussions between MicroStrategy's CEO and senior representatives from BNY Mellon,
Wells Fargo,
Bank
of America,
and other financial institutions exploring how best to integrate bitcoin management into client offerings before rolling out lending or investment products.
MicroStrategy currently holds over
671,
268 BTC valued at billions USD,
leading public company ownership trends.
Collectively public firms now control upwards
of one million bitcoins signaling growing institutional interest alongside clearer regulatory frameworks.
Saylor projects this wave will bolster bitcoin prices through next year potentially reaching between $143K-$170K range.