This week, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe sparked significant discussion by sharing what he described as “the most insightful chart in the ecosystem.” This chart offers a long-term perspective on Bitcoin’s value relative to gold, challenging the conventional bullish narrative. Van de Poppe points out that the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio is currently at its lowest point ever recorded. According to his analysis, when measured against gold, Bitcoin actually reached its peak back in December 2024 and has since been experiencing a relative bear market lasting about 14 months.
This perspective is important because most investors typically evaluate Bitcoin’s performance using U.S. dollars as the benchmark. In dollar terms, Bitcoin remains well above its pre-2024 prices and was trading near $68,000 at the time of writing—far from previous bear market lows characterized by panic selling. However, van de Poppe emphasizes that assessing Bitcoin against another tangible asset like gold reveals a different story: when gold prices rise sharply, they can elevate Bitcoin’s dollar price even if it loses value relative to ounces of gold.
Gold itself plays a crucial role here. The precious metal has seen strong gains heading into 2026, recently surpassing $5,000 per ounce—a surge fueled by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and concerns over global fiscal stability. These factors have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Van de Poppe suggests this robust performance of gold may have obscured underlying weaknesses in Bitcoin’s “real” value.
The technical evidence supporting this view is compelling. Van de Poppe highlights that the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin priced in terms of gold has dropped to historic lows similar to those observed at the end of each of the previous three BTC/Gold bear cycles—each lasting roughly 14 months. Historically speaking, these RSI troughs have preceded extended periods where Bitcoin outperformed gold significantly over multiple years. Traders and analysts alike recognize this signal as rare and often coinciding with key capitulation phases.
Two Key Insights Emerge
For contrarian investors who thrive on buying during times of fear and uncertainty, these extreme lows in BTC/Gold ratios represent prime opportunities historically followed by prolonged rallies for bitcoin versus gold.
On the other hand, this scenario serves as an important reminder about how we measure asset performance: all-time highs quoted in U.S dollars don’t always tell the full story across different asset classes or currencies. As van de Poppe notes himself—the October 2025 peak denominated in dollars might reflect more about metals’ strength than pure confidence in bitcoin itself.
Of course financial markets are not bound to repeat history exactly; future shifts could see falling gold prices or changing macroeconomic conditions altering correlations between assets abruptly.
Nonetheless—with bitcoin hovering around $68k while gold remains elevated—the BTC/Gold ratio chart injects fresh debate into what many assumed was just a brief correction rather than something deeper within crypto markets today.
The question now facing experts and investors alike is whether we are interpreting bitcoin according to prevailing market sentiment or if historical patterns suggest an alternative viewpoint—one that may redefine how we understand its current cycle amid evolving economic landscapes over coming weeks or months ahead.