The cryptocurrency market remains engulfed in a state of panic. Currently, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registers at just 8 points, indicating extreme fear—only slightly above the all-time low of 5 recorded on February 6.
Despite the overwhelming negativity, there is a glimmer of hope for traders. The global crypto market capitalization saw an increase of 4.3% today, reaching $2.36 trillion; however, this modest recovery comes after approximately $2 trillion has been lost in recent weeks.
In Myriad—a prediction marketplace created by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt—traders are estimating a 55% probability that Bitcoin will hit $55,000 before bouncing back to $84,000. This sentiment hardly inspires confidence. In addition to this bearish outlook, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin price target down from $300K to around $100K while cautioning that it could first plummet to as low as $50K. Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling $410 million yesterday as even optimistic traders displayed signs of panic amid red candlestick patterns on their charts.
The release of today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could be pivotal in determining whether this slight rebound continues or falters completely. Analysts anticipate inflation rates at around 2.5% year-over-year; if inflation appears higher than expected it may push Bitcoin towards the $60K mark while lower figures might provide some breathing space for bullish investors.
Bitcoin ($BTC) Price: The Rebound Appears Weak
Bitcoin’s price increased from $68,248 to an intraday peak at approximately $69,450 before stabilizing around the figure of about $69,321—marking a rise of 3.69% over the past day which seems promising initially but paints a less favorable picture when viewed through a broader lens.
Bitcoin ($BTC) price data source: Tradingview
The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently stands at 51.3 indicating strong bearish momentum within the market framework regardless of direction—readings exceeding 25 confirm trending conditions and those above 50 suggest significant conviction behind that trend.
This recent uptick may cause ADX values to dip slightly; however it does not imply that Bitcoin has turned bullish overnight—it merely indicates one cannot remain perpetually pessimistic and anticipates “FUD” or “FOMO” events during established trends.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 35—a clear indication within bearish territory since RSI measures momentum ranging from zero to one hundred with values below thirty signifying oversold conditions while those above seventy indicate overbought scenarios; sitting at thirty-five means Bitcoin has bounced off lows near sixty thousand but still strays far from neutral levels (fifty). Traders typically wait until RSI exceeds fifty before declaring any shift in momentum—which we have yet to witness here.
The fifty-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is trading significantly below its two-hundred-day counterpart—a classic indicator signaling bear markets ahead as EMAs assist traders in identifying directional trends using weighted averages based on pricing history; when short-term EMAs fall beneath long-term ones it reflects weaker recent activity compared with overarching trends thereby creating an overall bearish structure across markets involved therein .
If bulls wish for another candlestick like February sixth—but larger—they’ll need more convincing evidence than what’s currently presented here . An alternative scenario could involve consecutive daily closes surpassing eighty thousand dollars signaling potential returns for bulls—but until then , we’re likely observing mere fluctuations amidst ongoing downtrends .
A look into four-hour charts reveals somewhat improved circumstances suited towards day-traders seeking quick leverage opportunities amidst fluctuating prices oscillating between established support/resistance levels .
Bitcoin ($BTC) price data source: Tradingview
The four-hour ADX reads twenty point six indicating weak signals without clear directional bias which benefits active traders positioning themselves accordingly during moments where bitcoin fluctuates between supports/resistances ; meanwhile , RSI hovering near fifty-three point six suggests neutrality along with Squeeze Momentum Indicator being activated implying potential compression prior movements ahead – yet given current daily trend leaning negatively any rally observed over four hours would likely encounter resistance quickly therefore if engaging via swing trades /holding positions , prioritizing longer term strategies should remain paramount due diligence wise!
This minor bounce lacks sufficient strength needed signalize reversal tendencies instead highlighting persistent downward pressures evidenced by daily chart showcasing robust bear sentiments(ADX @51+), feeble relative strength index readings & overall negative EMA arrangements whereas shorter time frames offer possible scalping chances targeting ranges close towards seventy-$72k marks however prudent approaches ought favor caution amongst swing participants!