Bitcoin has seen a significant rise in September, climbing from approximately $108,000 at the beginning of the month to over $115,000.
This increase represents a modest 4% gain over two weeks; however, recent on-chain analytics indicate that the cryptocurrency might be gearing up for another upward movement that could lead to new all-time highs.
Realized Price for Mid-term Holders Surpassed
An analysis by CryptoQuant contributor ShayanMarkets reveals that Bitcoin’s recovery from $107,000 to $114,000 has pushed its value above the Realized Price for mid-term holders—those who have held their coins for three to six months.
The current Realized Price is around $114,000.
This price point is crucial as it often indicates market sentiment and potential selling pressure.
By surpassing this level, Bitcoin diminishes the chances of immediate sell-offs from this group of holders.
ShayanMarkets pointed out that a strong breakout and sustained trading above $114,000 could signify renewed optimism among mid-term investors.
This renewed confidence may lay the groundwork for a bullish trend capable of pushing BTC towards unprecedented heights.
However, caution was advised; failing to maintain this price level could weaken sentiment and pave the way for more significant corrections in the near future.
Caution Among Short-term Holders
Other on-chain indicators present a more cautious outlook. CryptoQuant contributor Gaah examined short-term holder (STH) behavior through an analysis of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which was adjusted using a 30-day moving average.
This metric evaluates whether investors are selling their assets at profits or losses.
Gaah noted that after four months above break-even levels, STH SOPR has dipped into negative territory—signifying that short-term holders are now incurring losses.
This change points toward a temporary decline in confidence among speculative traders who tend to react quickly to price changes.
Despite Bitcoin’s overall ascent from $60K to $125K over last year’s timeframe, STH SOPR metrics have shown decreasing peaks during this period. In previous cycles characterized by rapid price increases accompanied by SOPR readings indicating “Extreme Greed,” retail participation was notably high; however these dynamics appear absent currently suggesting institutional players may be driving recent gains instead.
The analyst added historical trends indicate market tops are typically confirmed when short-term holders exhibit extreme greed—a condition not yet observed in this cycle suggesting any current pullback might simply represent healthy consolidation rather than an indication of long-lasting reversal patterns ahead.”
Diverse Perspectives as Year-End Approaches
The outlook among market analysts regarding Bitcoin’s immediate future remains mixed.
Some experts warn we might be nearing peak conditions within its current cycle while others foresee possible downturns throughout September followed by renewed rallies heading into Q4 2025.
Predictions vary widely with some anticipating prices reaching upwards towards$150k before Christmas if bullish momentum continues uninterrupted.
At present time ,the asset trades around$115050 reflecting an increaseof0 .7 %over past24 hours as it seeks support above critical on-chain thresholds .
With both optimistic signals alongside cautionary ones emerging ,investors remain vigilant watching closely how well bitcoin maintains position relative mid term holder realized prices since outcomes here will likely dictate next phase rally initiation versus deeper corrective actions unfolding ahead .