Throughout every major bull market in various asset categories, there is a recurring urge to predict the market’s peak.
Many investors seek reassurance by comparing current conditions to well-known contrarian predictions, such as Michael Burry’s 2007 warning about the housing bubble.
This inclination intensifies when prices surge rapidly and volatility spikes—conditions that are presently evident in the silver market.
Bitcoin versus Silver Ratio
The ratio of bitcoin to silver currently hovers around 780. This figure is lower than its 2017 high during bitcoin’s $20,000 peak and closely aligns with levels seen in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 and the ratio dropped to approximately 700. This alignment hints that silver might be entering a phase of increased risk compared to bitcoin.
Over the last year, silver has experienced an impressive rally of nearly 300%. On Monday alone, it plunged almost 15% after earlier surging by a similar margin within the same trading session—briefly touching highs close to $117 per ounce before retreating back toward $112.
Historically, local peaks for silver have often clustered early in the calendar year. Many significant tops occurred during this period: February 1974; January 1980 with a dramatic spike at $47; February 1983; May 1987; February 1998; April 2004; May 2006; March 2008; and April 2011 where it reached around $50 during another blow-off phase.
This recurring historical trend signals caution regarding recent price movements. If history repeats itself, silver may have already hit its cycle apex or even experienced a blow-off top.