The Shift in Derivatives
In a recent discussion with Anthony Pompliano, Sigel expressed an optimistic outlook regarding the developments in the Bitcoin derivatives market.
He noted that the current pricing for puts compared to calls indicates that investors are paying significantly for protection, placing us in a rare position historically. This trend could be interpreted as a contrarian signal suggesting potential long-term gains.
Moreover, there has been notable selling activity among coins aged 3-5 years during Q4 and Q1 as early investors took their profits.
This selling pressure has diminished recently, although Marathon Digital Holdings stands out as an exception due to its retirement of convertible bonds.
“Our bullish stance remains intact; however, our investments may not have increased as much as one might anticipate given our respect for market cycles,” Sigel remarked.
The NODE Approach
Sigel oversees NODE, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to outperform Bitcoin while maintaining lower volatility levels.
Since its launch, NODE has achieved a 27% increase while Bitcoin experienced a decline of 33%, primarily through diversification and targeting profitable sectors which help mitigate volatility.
“I don’t believe there’s any necessity to introduce leverage into what is already an inherently volatile asset,” he stated.
The fund places significant emphasis on Bitcoin miners who are transitioning towards AI infrastructure development.
The Case for AI Productivity
VanEck has streamlined its AI budget around Anthropic and is developing agents aimed at automating back-office operations effectively.
Sigel attributes his firm’s productivity improvements to incorporating Claude into Excel processes, which helps avoid additional hiring costs.
The cost per megawatt for leases signed by Bitcoin miners shifting towards AI data centers continues to rise alongside increasing rental prices for Nvidia chips on the spot market.
This decline of miner stocks by 40% from their peak presents new investment opportunities.
Potential Risks Ahead in 2026
Sigel expresses concern regarding major tech stocks failing to generate returns amidst substantial investments in AI technology.
Companies undergoing significant capital expenditure cycles often experience challenging stock performance since returns on capital become apparent only later down the line.
The concentration of these firms within the S&P 500 could pose serious challenges if they fail to deliver adequate returns.
Additionally , political pressures may hinder aggressive workforce reductions that could enhance profit margins.
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