Bitcoin is steadily climbing toward a significant resistance zone, while the amount of available coins on exchanges continues to diminish. From a structural perspective, this scenario suggests bullish momentum; however, from a technical standpoint, the price is approaching an area where traders are likely to take profits. As such, Bitcoin will either break above and sustain beyond this resistance level or experience a corrective pullback into the mid-range.
Bitcoin Price Breakdown: Daily Chart Insights
Examining the daily chart reveals that Bitcoin has reached back into the $95K resistance range, coinciding with its 100-day moving average. This region previously acted as a rejection point during earlier rallies and remains an important supply zone within the broader downtrend from recent highs.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains elevated but no longer signals extreme overbought conditions. This indicates robust short-term momentum while still being part of an overarching corrective phase. Provided Bitcoin stays below both its 100-day moving average and the $95K resistance band, this movement should be viewed as a counter-trend rally rather than confirmation of a new upward trend.
If Bitcoin manages to break through and hold above these levels, it could trigger further gains toward approximately $106K—near its 200-day moving average—and potentially ignite the start of an extended bullish run.
BTC/USDT Four-Hour Chart Analysis
The four-hour chart shows that after breaking out from an ascending pattern structure, Bitcoin is now consolidating near both this pattern’s peak and higher timeframe resistance zones. Momentum appears to be waning: candlesticks are shrinking in size while RSI has begun turning downwards following bearish divergence—signaling possible distribution around current highs.
If buyers fail to maintain support in the breakout area between $93K and $94K, we may see prices retreating toward lower trendline support near $90K. Conversely, if BTC can hold firm above this breakout zone and establish stability there, another advance targeting psychological levels between $98K and $100K becomes plausible. However, sustained buying pressure must follow quickly; otherwise there’s risk that what looks like a breakout might instead become a false signal.
On-Chain Data Perspective
The quantity of Bitcoins held on exchanges continues declining even as prices hover near local peaks—indicating fewer coins are readily available for sale on platforms while more remain locked away in cold storage or held by long-term investors. This dynamic typically reflects tightening supply conditions favorable for price appreciation.
This doesn’t rule out short-term pullbacks when prices encounter technical barriers but suggests any dips into ranges between roughly $80K–$90K are more likely met with buying interest rather than triggering widespread sell-offs signaling market tops. Unless there’s sudden large-scale inflow back onto exchanges—which would imply increased selling pressure—the overall medium-term outlook based on blockchain data remains positive despite potential short-lived downward moves needed for momentum resets.