Currently, Bitcoin is valued at $66,804, reflecting a modest increase of 0.58% in the last day. However, it remains significantly down by 47% from its peak of October 2025. The latest downturn can be traced back to statements made by the White House.
In his address on April 1st, President Trump altered market expectations that had been anticipating a peace agreement. Instead, he warned that the U.S. would take decisive military action against Iran within two to three weeks.
The cryptocurrency market reacted swiftly without waiting for further confirmation; over $422 million in positions were liquidated as most long positions suffered substantial losses.
Bitcoin’s Current Behavior Doesn’t Align with Its ‘Digital Gold’ Image
This is an unsettling reality for many investors.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has surged to a level of 0.75—its highest point in several months—indicating that institutional investors are not viewing $BTC as a safe haven against geopolitical tensions but rather as a high-risk tech asset while commodities like oil and gold have risen sharply.
The underlying structural situation adds another layer of unease.
A report from XWIN Research Japan via CryptoQuant indicates that open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has reached between 18,000 and 20,000 $BTC, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts.
“This suggests that price movements are increasingly influenced by leveraged trading rather than actual demand,” states the report. Such conditions often lead to forced liquidations.
Their moderate scenario predicts $BTC could drop to around $50,000. If trends continue with ETF outflows and weak spot demand persistently affecting prices, they forecast potential declines down to $30,000-$20,000 range or even lower under extreme circumstances involving prolonged closures at Hormuz Strait where they do not rule out hitting $10,000.
You may also want to check: Iran’s “Reverse Indicator” Theory: Is Trump’s Truth Social Signaling Opportunities for Crypto Traders?
No Universal Panic Among Traders
<p trader Merlijn offers an alternative perspective based on different chart patterns:
“Many believe this Bitcoin cycle is broken; however my analysis suggests otherwise,” wrote Merlijn on X platform. He argues that current conditions resemble those seen in early 2019—a time when sentiment was similarly pessimistic before Bitcoin rebounded strongly against skepticism surrounding it.$60K serves as crucial support level; maintaining above it could lead history repeating itself while falling below resets everything entirely.”
Analyst Jelle concurs with this view stating bears have yet fully commit despite recent breakdowns.
“Bears haven’t followed through since pushing prices lower,” he noted adding any recovery above$68K would invalidate bearish outlook altogether.
Trader Ted holds reservations about bullish prospects pointing out after reaching$76K last month,Bitcoin continues printing lower highs/lows.
$ BTC appears weak still.
After hitting$76K last month,Bitcoin has been forming lower highs/lows.
Now key levels lie around$69-70k which represent significant short-side liquidity zones;
IMO,$ BTC will tap into these areas before sellers return again.pic.twitter.com/trzaw63kpg
— Ted (@TedPillows) April3rd2026
The Next Day Will Be Crucial For Market Directionality!
Non-farm payroll data releases today.A strong number could bolster dollar strength,reducing rate cut anticipations historically weighing upon Bitcoins performance.This serves immediate test for markets struggling lately!
The critical threshold everyone watches closely remains at $60k.The charts shall provide answers sought after across various sectors!