Bitcoin has surged over 12% since its November bottom, currently trading near $92,950 after rebounding off the lower boundary of its ascending channel. This rally is occurring as investors position themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming announcement, which is widely anticipated to be the final interest rate cut for this year. At this critical juncture, Bitcoin’s price action is influenced by a convergence of macroeconomic policies, ETF inflows and outflows, and technical chart patterns.
Continued Spot Outflows Amid Reliance on Macro Drivers
Net flows from exchanges remain negative. Data from Coinglass indicates approximately $27 million in net outflows at today’s session opening. This trend has persisted for several weeks, signaling that more supply is moving back onto exchanges rather than being locked away in long-term storage.
Sustained outflows tend to dampen intraday price rallies. While buyers have successfully defended the crucial $90,000 support level so far, maintaining upward momentum will require either a reversal in these flow dynamics or an external catalyst—most likely stemming from Federal Reserve policy decisions.
The Fed’s Decision as a Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Near-Term Breakout
Market consensus points toward a 0.25% rate reduction with CME futures pricing in an 88% chance and prediction markets nearly unanimous on this outcome. Should the Fed proceed with easing measures, it would reduce holding costs associated with digital assets while diminishing Treasury yields—both factors historically favorable to cryptocurrency appreciation.
Several research teams suggest that this meeting could mark a turning point following recent declines. CF Benchmarks identified volatility spikes indicative of exhaustion phases seen before previous rebounds that propelled Bitcoin beyond significant resistance levels over subsequent months.
Bloomberg surveys reveal economists expect further rate cuts into 2026; such accommodative monetary policy bolsters Bitcoin’s long-term outlook by enhancing liquidity conditions during times of macroeconomic uncertainty.
The broader financial markets are adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of Powell’s remarks; equities remained flat prior to the announcement reflecting cautious investor sentiment—a dynamic that underscores how impactful Fed communication can be on Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory once revealed publicly.
Buyers Hold Ground Within Rising Channel as Critical Price Points Narrow
The daily chart depicts Bitcoin moving within a well-defined rising channel established post-November capitulation lows. Buyers continue defending progressively higher lows while sellers resist near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement around $94,100—a breakout above which could pave way toward $97,200 corresponding to the 0.618 retracement level.
A key resistance lies at Supertrend levels close to $98,100; surpassing this barrier would signal bullish structural change and negate the broader downtrend originating from October highs.
The Parabolic SAR indicator supports current bullish momentum by positioning below price action whereas an overhead dotted trendline remains as major structural resistance—the clearing of which would confirm sustained market direction shift favoring buyers.
- Immediate Support: $90,900
- Channel Support: $87,500
- Breakout Trigger: $94,100
- Main Resistance: $98,100
- Bullish Extension Target: $107,500 (on strong volume)
The intraday momentum indicators bolster optimism: On shorter timeframes like thirty minutes BTC broke above descending micro-trendlines while RSI approaches mid-60s territory and MACD maintains bullish crossovers confirming renewed buying strength during pullbacks.
Divergence Between Sentiment And Long-Term Projections As Reality Surpasses Expectations
“Everyone loves bold $BTC predictions.
Until December arrives.
2025 was no exception.
VanEck: $180K
Standard Chartered: $250K
ARK Invest: $650K
Saylor: $1M
Cathie Wood: $2M → $1M by 2030
…if only reality matched forecasts — yet bitcoin closed around $&&;88K despite ETFs live &&;250B inflows.”
BOLD PRICE TARGETS DOMINATED EARLY IN THE YEAR WITH INSTITUTIONS FORECASTING RANGES FROM USD180&comma000 TO OVER ONE MILLION. ...”