Bitcoin Expert Cautions Against “Major Financial Blunder of the Decade” for Adherents of This Popular Theory

Plan C, the analyst behind the ‘Bitcoin Quantile Model,’ recently shared a series of charts challenging the notion that Bitcoin’s current cycle will mirror previous ones as it trades near $87,661.

The data presents a macroeconomic scenario where business-cycle indicators remain subdued while demand for tangible assets like gold stays strong. This dynamic can alter the timing of Bitcoin’s rallies and pullbacks, even if its long-term trajectory remains intact.

Plan C warned,

“Believing this Bitcoin cycle must replicate exactly the last bull market could be one of the biggest financial errors in years.”

Two charts from TechDev_52 compare Bitcoin’s price to a PMI-style business cycle index. They reveal that while this economic measure declines, Bitcoin maintains its strength.

The latest U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November registered 48.2, indicating contraction; December’s figure is expected in early January.

This report highlighted ongoing weakness in demand and overall manufacturing conditions consistent with readings below 50.

A critical test looms for 2026 pricing dynamics

If markets anticipate easier monetary policy and more relaxed financial conditions, Bitcoin may behave more like an asset sensitive to liquidity rather than growth metrics. This could sustain price gains despite PMIs remaining under 50.

Conversely, without such liquidity support, any divergence between Bitcoin’s resilience and weak business-cycle signals reduces margin for error—price corrections might occur more swiftly.

The “Bitcoin Quantile Model” shifts focus from simple historical comparisons toward a statistical perspective assessing where current prices fit within bitcoin’s historical distribution across time horizons instead of predicting exact values.

At roughly $87,620 per coin currently, bitcoin sits near its 30th percentile according to this model—below median levels—even though it approaches prior cycle highs when measured in dollars.

This quantile framework offers structured insight into potential price paths rather than fixed targets:

• Over three months: lower bound around $80K (15th percentile), median near $127K (50th), upper bands at approximately $164K (85th) and $207K (95th).
• Over one year: ranges include about $103K (15th), $164K (median), rising up to roughly $205K (85th) and as high as $253K (95th).

3 Months
95%
$207&comma ;000
±&nbsp136&period ;2 & per cnt ;
1 Year15%d>$103 ,000

Distribution Waypoints Relative to Current Price ($87,661)

Time Horizon	Quantile Band	Price Level	% Change vs Current Price
3 Months	15%	$80,000	-8.7%
3 Months	50%	$127,000	±&nbsp44.9%
3 Months	85%	$164,000	±&nbsp87.1%
>+17 .5 %	1 Year 50% $164 ,000	> +87 .1 %	1 Year	85%	$205 ,000	+133 .9 %
1 Year	95%	$253 ,000	+188 .7 %

A different chart standardizes both bitcoin prices and business-cycle data into z-scores revealing that recent bitcoin strength has not been matched by improvements in economic activity indicators.

Looking ahead over several upcoming reports creates three possible scenarios:

First possibility: PMI rebounds aligning with stronger bitcoin performance.
Second option: PMI remains weak but liquidity-driven support keeps bitcoin stable.
Third outcome: Both weakening PMI figures and falling bitcoin prices signal risk-off sentiment.

An additional benchmark involves comparing BTC against gold, a ratio chart credited to Gert van Lagen.

<p&gtAccording to Kitco,&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;; spot gold hovers around $4,558, placing each BTC at approximately 19.7&amp;; ounces of gold.

<p&gtA rally in BTCUSD can coincide with a declining BTC-gold ratio if gold outpaces gains — altering how investors gauge relative outperformance between these two assets.

<p&gtThe chart focuses on whether this ratio holds key structural support amid momentum pressures such as RSI readings — which could reverse should stabilization occur.

<h2&gtGold&squo;s upward trend through 2025 has been linked to expectations around easing policies,&s#36;euro-dollar fluctuations,&s geopolitics,and central bank buying interest.

<h2→u003cu002fpu003eMarkets are also monitoring potential rate cuts projected for 2026.

<p&gtWithin this context,BTC-gold serves as an important secondary indicator alongside PMIs:
– If a firming or higher-low pattern emerges,it would indicate improving relative performance by BTC even if gold remains strong.
– Continued decline would reinforce safe-haven preference favoring gold.

<p&gtTogether,the data sketches three probable trajectories over six-to-twelve months:

n
• A reflation scenario featuring better PMIs,a strengthening BTC-gold ratio,and movement toward median quantiles.n

n

• An easing-weakness regime where PMIs stay below fifty but liquidity expectations keep btc supported,bounded between lower quantiles.n

n

• A deeper contraction pushing demand further toward hard assets like gold,and increasing odds btc dips toward lower quantiles short term.nn

nnrnrn<!—-rnrnrnrn rnrn

The forthcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release scheduled early January represents an initial checkpoint assessing whether economic cycles begin reversing trends.</P