Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has noted that the present market cycle is unique in numerous aspects.
Van de Poppe highlights three factors to support this claim. Firstly, what was once anticipated as “Uptober” has transformed into “Downtober.” The crypto market experienced an unprecedented sell-off last weekend; a staggering $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated following an October 10 flash crash, marking the largest event of its kind in crypto history. Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies have seen declines this October, a month traditionally viewed as favorable for the markets.
I’m not worried that the bear market has started.
This cycle has proven to be different in all ways.
Uptober is downtober.#Altcoins didn’t break out at the exact same time as previous cycles.#Bitcoin made a new all-time high before the halving.
The 4-year cycle doesn’t…
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 15, 2025
The second and third points he mentions are that altcoins did not surge simultaneously with past cycles and Bitcoin achieved a new peak prior to its halving event.
The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing Bitcoin’s block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 coins per block. In March of that year, just before this event, Bitcoin hit a fresh high of $73,835. The current record price for Bitcoin stands at $126,198 as of October 6, 2025.
Is it time to abandon the four-year cycle?
Currently trading at $111,830 per coin—11.53% lower than its peak earlier this month—Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain according to Van de Poppe: “I’m not worried that the bear market has started.”
A drop exceeding 20% from its latest peak would officially signal entry into bear territory for Bitcoin prices according to traditional definitions; however Van De Poppe suggests dismissing such ideas altogether by declaring end times on conventional wisdom regarding cyclical patterns: “The four-year cycle doesn’t exist anymore…we should erase it entirely.”
“I believe we’re looking at something much longer,” he continued while drawing parallels between now & Q3-2019 suggesting perhaps another one-and-a-half or two years left within our current trajectory.”