Aksel Kibar, an analyst specializing in traditional markets, has issued a rare cautionary note for Bitcoin investors. His technical analysis suggests that the recent price rebound does not signal the onset of a new bullish phase; rather, it is merely a technical trap within an overarching downward trend.
Kibar points out that the long-term market dynamics have shifted significantly. After Bitcoin was unable to maintain its position above last year’s critical highs near $127,000 per $BTC, the chart exhibited a broadening pattern followed by a steep decline.
$60,000 could be next stop, says Kibar
Currently, Bitcoin’s price sits below its 365-day moving average—a classic indicator of bear market conditions. In this context, any short-lived upward movements are viewed by Kibar as mere temporary consolidations prior to further declines.
The primary concern he highlights today is the emergence of a “rising wedge” pattern. This indicates that while $BTC prices are trending upwards within a narrowing range, each successive local high barely surpasses its predecessor. Such formations typically suggest buyer exhaustion and counter-trend behavior.
At present levels around $69,200 where Bitcoin is trading now tests the lower boundary of this wedge formation. According to Kibar’s analysis, the market has yet to identify its final bottom level for potential bargain hunting.
If this wedge breaks downward—an occurrence currently unfolding—the immediate targets will shift towards $60,000—the nearest psychological support level tested earlier in February—and potentially deeper zones at $52,000-$48,000 where this corrective phase may conclude.
Kibar urges caution and advises against interpreting local gains as indicative of an overall trend reversal. As long as prices remain significantly below $90,000 per $BTC, the prevailing trend continues to point downwards.