VanEck, a leading global investment management company, forecasts that Bitcoin’s value could soar to approximately $2.9 million by the year 2050. This growth is anticipated to stem from Bitcoin’s increasing role as a worldwide settlement medium and its adoption as a reserve asset by central banks.
According to VanEck’s long-term capital market outlook, they estimate an average annual return of around 15% over the next 25 years. The firm envisions Bitcoin facilitating between 5% and 10% of international trade settlements and comprising roughly 2.5% of central bank reserves by mid-century.
The analysis positions Bitcoin as a unique non-sovereign reserve asset whose enduring value is less influenced by short-term speculative trends and more driven by fundamental structural dynamics within the global debt framework.
VanEck suggests that avoiding any exposure to Bitcoin might now carry greater opportunity costs than the risks associated with holding even a small portion in one’s portfolio.
The report recommends strategic portfolio allocations ranging from 1% to 3%, while investors with higher risk tolerance might consider allocations up to 20%, aiming for improved risk-adjusted returns.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated minimal correlation with traditional equities and bonds but maintains a significant inverse relationship with the US dollar’s performance.
Although short-term price fluctuations continue to be affected by factors such as global liquidity conditions and leverage levels, VanEck concludes that Bitcoin’s long-run path will largely be shaped by its alignment with monetary inflation pressures and expanding institutional adoption.