Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,400 after yet another unsuccessful effort to surpass short-term resistance levels. The price remains constrained below a descending trendline and critical Fibonacci retracement points, allowing sellers to maintain dominance as December 26 approaches. With a significant options expiry imminent, the market appears to be consolidating rather than breaking out.
Fibonacci Retracements Mark Key Battle Zones
According to daily charts, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to the breakdown pattern established in November. It stays beneath the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near $90,700 and well below the 0.5 retracement at $93,800—both acting as ceilings for recovery attempts throughout December.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level around $96,900 remains significantly above current prices and represents a crucial threshold for any substantial trend reversal; until this barrier is challenged successfully, upward movements are likely corrective in nature.
On the downside front, support has been found near the 0.236 retracement close to $86,800 where buyers have repeatedly stepped in preventing deeper declines toward last swing lows near $80,600—this defense keeps Bitcoin range-bound rather than decisively broken down.
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Bears Retain Control Confirmed by EMA Alignment
The cryptocurrency trades under its key exponential moving averages (EMAs) — specifically the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs — which are stacked bearishly between approximately $88,700 and $101,500. Each rally into this cluster of EMAs has stalled firmly reinforcing resistance overhead.
The immediate hurdle lies at the 20-day EMA near $88,700; beyond that sits resistance from both the 50-day EMA at roughly $92,900 and then further up at about $98,500 with the hundred-day EMA marking an upper boundary of current price structure.
The Supertrend indicator remains solidly bearish around ~$95,900—a zone coinciding with previous breakdown resistances—confirming that control over momentum still favors sellers rather than buyers reclaiming dominance.
A Descending Trendline Keeps Selling Pressure Strong
Bitcoin continues making lower highs under a downward sloping trendline drawn from October’s peak close to an all-time high of about$123K.This line now intersects between roughly$92K-$94K territory.Every bounce attempt fails before reaching it.Sellers hold structural advantage until prices can decisively break above this declining resistance line.The recent sideways movement reflects compression within range boundaries instead of accumulation phases or breakout setups due volatility contraction inside these limits .
Options Expiry Set To Trigger Next Market Move
The most immediate catalyst looming is December26 options expiration event ,where approximately$27 billion worth open contracts will expire.For much partDecember,dealer hedging strategies have kept Bitcoin tightly ranged between85k-90k USD levels .This stabilizing effect typically diminishes post-expiry.With put-call ratio hovering low (~0 .38)and call interest concentrated on higher strike prices,the probability increases for directional moves once gamma exposure subsides historically favoring expansions over continued sideways chopping.Price direction hinges on whether spot demand steps up as derivative pressures ease off .
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Spot Demand Remains Steady Despite Cooling ETF Flows
Although inflows into ETFs have slowed compared with earlier months,this demand remains structurally positive.U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than57 billion dollars cumulatively since their inception.BlackRock’s IBIT fund ranks among top inflow recipients projected through2025.Despite recent weakness institutional investors’ positioning holds firm,surveys indicate over80% plan increasing crypto allocations with Bitcoin continuing as preferred asset choice .
Corporate Holdings And Miners Impact Supply Dynamics
Corporate accumulation rates decelerated during Q4 but total holdings remain sizable.Public firms collectively control about1 .3 million BTC led by Strategy Inc’s massive stash nearing629 thousand coins.Meanwhile,mining operators demonstrate resilience.Network hash rate dropped roughly4%in December easing selling pressure from less efficient miners.Historically such declines precede medium-term gains because inefficient supply exits market.Bitcoin supply tightness persists daily issuance hovers around450 BTC while institutional appetite absorbs multiples thereof yearly output volume .
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Break Higher?
The cryptocurrency appears poised for resolution amid mounting pressure.
Bullish scenario:A decisive move past$91 ,000 following options expiry could shift short-term momentum positively opening paths toward targets near$94 ,000 then approaching$98 ,000.Reclaiming descending trendline would signal potential structural recovery.
Bearish scenario:If support falters below85 ,000 post-expiry,it risks testing82 ,000 followed possibly by retesting lows close to80 ,600.
Bitcoin currently compresses beneath stiff resistance without collapsing.Options expiry will remove artificial pinning forces.The ensuing direction will determine if year-end closes on continuation or reversal note.
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