Crypto expert Ali Martinez has identified a remarkable resemblance in the timing of Bitcoin’s current market cycle compared to its historical patterns.
Martinez highlights that Bitcoin’s major market cycles tend to follow a consistent timeline, both in terms of how long they last and the depth of their corrections.
Based on his analysis, it generally takes about 1,064 days for Bitcoin to climb from a low point to reach its peak. After hitting this high, the subsequent decline usually spans around 364 days before bottoming out again. This sequence has been observed across three significant cycles so far, with the present cycle seemingly adhering to this same framework.
For instance, during the first cycle, Bitcoin surged from its January 2015 low and peaked exactly 1,064 days later in December 2017. The bear market that followed lasted precisely 364 days until December 2018 when a new low was established. In the second cycle, it again took roughly 1,064 days for Bitcoin to rise from December 2018’s bottom up until November 2021. The correction phase after this peak lasted another full year (364 days), culminating in a low near $15,500 by November 2022.
Martinez points out that these trends appear once more in today’s market dynamics. He notes that starting from November 2022’s trough and moving forward approximately 1,064 days brings us close to October 2025—when Bitcoin is projected to hit another peak near $126,200. Following this pattern suggests we are now inside a correction period lasting about one year (364 days), which could mean the next significant bottom might occur around October 2026—roughly 288 days away from now.
The analyst also draws attention to previous price declines during bear markets: an 84% drop between 2017–2018 and a 77% decrease spanning 2021–2022. Averaging these figures yields an approximate pullback of around 80%. If history repeats itself under similar conditions, Martinez estimates that Bitcoin’s forthcoming lowest point could be near $37, 500.
This information should not be considered as financial advice.