A well-known cryptocurrency analyst from Altcoin Daily has outlined what he considers to be the most pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin by the year 2026.
In a recent video presentation, he elaborated that although he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, the current state of the market necessitates that investors also prepare for a potentially negative scenario.
Understanding His Bearish Projection
The analyst emphasized that this scenario is not his primary forecast but rather an alternative outcome should certain trends persist.
He indicated that even in a less favorable environment, Bitcoin might initially experience a brief surge towards $110,000. However, this increase would likely result in what is known as a “lower high,” suggesting it wouldn’t surpass previous price peaks.
Following this potential rise, Bitcoin could retreat to an essential support range between $60,000 and $65,000. This zone holds significance as it marked the all-time high during the last cycle and typically serves as support during market corrections.
The analyst believes that if Bitcoin stabilizes at this level, it may rebound. Nevertheless, if historical four-year cycles continue to apply, 2026 could still present significant challenges overall.
If Historical Patterns Persist
Many analysts assert that Bitcoin adheres to a recurring four-year cycle linked with its halving events. Based on this framework:
- The year 2026 is anticipated to be weak
- A temporary recovery might push Bitcoin back up toward $95,000–$100,000
- This price point would serve as resistance
- A subsequent sell-off could drive prices down to approximately $56,000
This scenario suggests a final capitulation phase akin to those seen in previous cycles before conditions eventually improve later on.
The analyst reiterated that this perspective reflects his worst-case analysis rather than his main expectation. He mentioned earlier bullish predictions included possibilities of Bitcoin reaching up to $150,000—an outcome which would challenge traditional four-year cycle patterns entirely.
Taking into account Tom Lee’s Fundstrat bear case projections indicates there may be a pullback during early 2026 where Bitcoin could dip towards $60,000–$65,000. Meanwhile Ethereum might fall within the range of approximately $1,800–$2,000 while Solana could decrease down to around $50–$75 before finding stability again.