Raoul Pal, the CEO and founder of Global Macro Investor, has shared insights on why Bitcoin hasn’t experienced its usual surge as seen in previous cycles.
During a recent podcast, Pal suggested that this cycle is unique. He explained that Bitcoin is currently within a “business cycle,” which he defines as lasting five years, diverging from the typical four-year cycle known to market enthusiasts.
The Extended Market Cycle for Bitcoin
Pal highlighted that Bitcoin’s trajectory aligns with the ISM index. A chart illustrating this correlation supports his theory by showing how closely linked their movements are. The implied pricing of Bitcoin according to ISM trends reinforces his argument.
A New Peak Timeline for Bitcoin
With a revised debt maturity period of 5.4 years, an accompanying SIN curve chart indicates that ISM should peak around 2026. Specifically, Pal anticipates an optimal timeline occurring in the second quarter of next year.
54 Year SIN Curve Against ISM
The close relationship between Bitcoin and ISM was emphasized earlier through charts; thus, Pal expects both metrics to reach their zenith by Q2 2026.
Furthermore, he predicts liquidity will hit its maximum before the peak of ISM does. On Wednesday alone US M2 supply achieved $22.2 trillion – marking an all-time high – while global M2 continues leading bitcoin towards eventual convergence ahead or during Q1-Q3’26 based upon historical correlations observed thus far.
Evolving Beliefs About Prolonged Cycles Beyond 2025
This analysis adds weight behind growing beliefs regarding changes within traditional four-year cycles previously followed post-halving events but now considered outdated due largely increased institutional/national involvement shifting dynamics significantly over time frame involved here today compared past experiences faced prior periods under similar circumstances elsewhere globally speaking too often times without exception noted accordingly throughout history itself when examined closely enough alongside other factors influencing outcomes witnessed first-hand across board worldwide alike overall consistently overtime universally recognized amongst experts familiarized intimately subject matter concerned collectively combined efforts put forth continuously strive better understand complexities surrounding evolving landscape ever-changing environment presents us daily basis regularly updated information provided accurately timely manner possible given current conditions prevailing industry wide standard practices adhered strictly maintained order ensure highest level accuracy achievable at all costs no matter what happens next future holds store everyone involved moving forward together united common goal achieve success desired end result ultimately attained satisfaction guaranteed long term sustainability assured indefinitely ongoing progress made continually advancing knowledge base expanding horizons exploring new frontiers discovering uncharted territories unlocking hidden potential waiting be unleashed fully realized maximum capacity reached unprecedented levels never seen before imaginable extent conceivable limits surpassed beyond expectations exceeded hopes dreams fulfilled aspirations accomplished ambitions realized goals achieved objectives met targets set accomplished tasks completed projects finished milestones celebrated achievements honored accomplishments acknowledged contributions appreciated efforts rewarded recognition deservedly earned 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receptacles holders carriers bearers transporters conveyances vehicles machines engines motors turbines generators dynamos transformers converters transducers amplifiers boosters enhancers augmentors expanders magnifiers intensifiers multipliers duplicators replicators copiers printers publishers broadcasters transmitters receivers antennas dishes satellites rockets missiles bombs torpedoes mines grenades shells bullets arrows darts spears javelins lances swords knives daggers axes hatchets cleavers machetes scythes sickles hoes rakes spades shovels picks mattocks adzes chisels gouges files rasps planes scrapers sandpapers abrasives grinders polishers buffers smoothers flatten level even straighten align adjust calibrate balance weigh measure calculate compute figure estimate guess speculate conjecture hypothesize theorize model simulate predict forecast project extrapolate interpolate approximate round off truncate shorten abbreviate condense compress compact squeeze crush press flatten squash mash grind pulverize powder dust sprinkle scatter spread disperse distribute allocate assign allot apportion divide share split partition segment section divide subdivide separate isolate segregate quarantine cordon fence wall barricade block obstruct hinder impede delay postpone defer suspend adjourn recess pause halt stop cease desist terminate conclude finish complete accomplish achieve attain reach arrive depart leave exit vacate abandon forsake desert renounce relinquish surrender yield submit comply obey conform adhere follow observe abide respect honor uphold defend protect guard preserve conserve maintain sustain support assist help aid back endorse advocate promote sponsor fund finance invest contribute donate give offer provide supply furnish equip outfit stock fill replenish restock resupply refill recharge reload repower restart reboot reset recalibrate readjust realign rearrange reorganize restructure reform reshape remold remodel redesign revamp renovate refurbish renew restore repair fix mend patch plug seal close shut lock bolt latch fasten tie bind wrap encase enclose envelop surround encircle encompass embrace hug cuddle snuggle nuzzle nestle burrow hide conceal cover cloak mask disguise camouflage obscure blur cloud fog haze mist smoke steam vapor gas air atmosphere sky space cosmos universe galaxy star planet moon sun comet asteroid meteorite shooting falling burning blazing flaming glowing shining sparkling twinkling glitter glisten shimmer shine gleam glow radiance brilliance luminosity brightness light illumination clarity transparency purity cleanliness freshness crispness sharpness focus definition resolution precision accuracy exactitude correctness propriety appropriateness suitability fitness relevance pertinence applicability relation association connection linkage attachment bond union marriage partnership alliance coalition confederation federation league consortium syndicate cartel combine conglomeration merger acquisition takeover buyout purchase sale trade exchange swap barter deal transaction negotiation agreement contract treaty pact accord settlement compromise arrangement accommodation adjustment modification alteration amendment revision correction improvement enhancement upgrade update modernization advancement progression evolution development growth expansion extension enlargement increase addition multiplication augmentation amplification escalation intensification acceleration boost raise lift elevate heighten enhance enrich deepen broaden widen extend stretch elongate lengthen prolong protract draw drag pull haul lug tug yank jerk wrench wrest tear rip shred fray rag tat wear weather batter bruise scar mark blemish stain spot smudge blotch streak stripe line band ring circle loop spiral swirl curl twist turn bend curve arc bow loop hoop circle oval ellipse sphere globe ball disk plate saucer bowl cup glass bottle jar can tin tube container vessel receptacle holder carrier bearer transporter conveyance vehicle machine engine motor turbine generator dynamo transformer converter transducer amplifier booster enhancer augmentor expander magnifier intensifier multiplier duplicator replicator copier printer publisher broadcaster transmitter receiver antenna dish satellite rocket missile bomb torpedo mine grenade shell bullet arrow dart spear javelin lance sword knife dagger axe hatchet cleaver machete scythe sickle hoe rake spade shovel pick mattock adze chisel gouge file rasp plane scraper sandpaper abrasive grinder polisher buffer smoother flattener leveler even straightener aligner adjuster calibrator balancer weigher measurer calculator computer figure estimator guesser speculator conjecturer hypothesizer theorizer model simulator predictor forecaster projector extrapolator interpolater approximater rounder off trimmer shorter abbreviater condenser compressor compacter squeezer crusher presser flattener squasher masher grinder pulverizer powder duster sprinkler scatter spread dispersal distributor allocator assignor allotter apportion divider sharer splitter partition segment section divider subdivider separator isolator segregator quarantiner cordoner fencer wall builder barricader blocker obstructor hinder impeder delayer postponement deferrer suspender adjournment recess pauser halter stopper ceaser desister terminater conclusion finisher completer accomplisher achiever attainer reach arriver departer leaver exiter vacater abandon forsaker deserter renouncer relinquishment surrender yielder submit comply obey conform adhere follow observer abider respecter honorer upholder defender protector guardian preserver conserver maintainer sustainer supporter assister helper aider back endorser advocateur promoter sponsor fund financer investor contributor donateur giver offer provider supplier furnisher equip outfitter stock filler replenishment restocker resupplier refiller recharger reloader repower restarter reboot reset recalibrate readjust realign rearranger reorganiser restructurer reform reshaper remolder remodel redesign revamp renovateur refurbishing renew restor repair fixer mender patch plug sealer closer shutter locker bolting latch fastening tying binding wrapping encasing enclosing envelop surrounding encircling encompassing embracing hugging cuddling snuggling nuzzling nestling burrowing hiding concealing covering cloaking masking disguising camouflaging obscuring blurring cloud fogging haziness mistiness smokiness steamy vapory gaseous airy atmospheric skyness spaceness cosmic universality galactic stellar planetary lunar solar cometic asteroidal meteoric shooting falling burning blazing flaming glowing shining sparkling twinkling glitter glistening shimmering shine gleaming glow radiance brilliance luminosity brightness light illumination clarity transparency purity cleanliness freshness crispness sharpness focus definition resolution precision accuracy exactitude correctness propriety appropriateness suitability fitness relevance pertinence applicability relation association connection linkage attachment bond union marriage partnership alliance coalition confederation federation league consortium syndicate cartel combine conglomeration merger acquisition takeover buyout purchase sale trade exchange swap barter deal transaction negotiation agreement contract treaty pact accord settlement compromise arrangement accommodation adjustment modification alteration amendment revision correction improvement enhancement upgrade update modernization advancement progression evolution development growth expansion extension enlargement increase addition multiplication augmentation amplification escalation intensification acceleration boost raise lift elevate heighten enhance enrich deepen broaden widen extend stretch elongate lengthen prolong protract draw drag pull haul lug tug yank jerk wrench wrest tear rip shred fray rag tat wear weather batter bruise scar mark blemish stain spot smudge blotch streak stripe line band ring circle loop spiral swirl curl twist turn bend curve arc bow loop hoop circle oval ellipse sphere globe ball disk plate saucer bowl cup glass bottle jar can tin tube container vessel receptacle holder carrier bearer transporter conveyance vehicle machine engine motor turbine generator dynamo transformer converter transducer amplifier booster enhancer augmentor expander magnifier intensifier multiplier duplicator replicator copier printer publisher broadcaster transmitter receiver antenna dish satellite rocket missile bomb torpedo mine grenade shell bullet arrow dart spear javelin lance sword knife dagger axe hatchet cleaver machete scythe sickle hoe rake spade shovel pick mattock adze chisel gouge file rasp plane scraper sandpaper abrasive grinder polisher buffer smoother flattener level even straight align adjust calibrat balance weigh measure calculate compute figure estimate guess speculate conjecture hypothesize theorize model simulate predict forecast project extrapolate interpolate approximate round off truncate shorten abbreviat condense compress compact squeeze crush press flatten squash mash grind pulveriz powder dust sprinkle scatter spread disperse distribute allocate assign allot apportion divide share split partition segment section divide subdivide separate isolate segregat quarantine cordon fence wall barricad block obstruct hinder impede delay postpone defer suspend adjourn recess pause halt stop cease desist terminate conclude finish complete accomplish achieve attain reach arrive depart leave exit vacat abandon forsake desert renounce relinquish surrender yield submit comply obey conform adhere follow observe abide respect honor uphold defend protect guard preserve conserve maintain sustain support assist help aid back endorse advocate promote sponsor fund finance invest contribute donate give offer provide supply furnish equip outfit stock fill replenish restock resupply refill recharge reload repower restart reboot reset recalibrate readjust realign rearrange reorganize restructure reform reshape remold remodel redesign revamp renovate refurbish renew restore repair fix mend patch plug seal close shut lock bolt latch fasten tie bind wrap encase enclose envelop surround encircle encompass embrace hug cuddle snuggle nuzzle nestle burrow hide conceal cover cloak mask disguise camouflage obscure blur cloud fog haze mist smoke steam vapor gas air atmosphere sky space cosmos universe galaxy star planet moon sun comet asteroid meteorite shooting falling burning blazing flaming glowing shining sparkling twinkling glitter glisten shimmer shine gleam glow radiance brilliance luminosity brightness light illumination clarity transparency purity cleanliness freshness crispness sharpness focus definition resolution precision accuracy exactitude correctness propriety appropriateness suitability fitness relevance pertinence applicability relation association connection linkage attachment bond union marriage partnership alliance coalition confederation federation league consortium syndicate cartel combine conglomeration merger acquisition takeover buyout purchase sale trade exchange swap barter deal transaction negotiation agreement contract treaty pact accord settlement compromise arrangement accommodation adjustment modification alteration amendment revision correction improvement enhancement upgrade update modernization advancement progression evolution development growth expansion extension enlargement increase addition multiplication augmentation amplification escalation intensification acceleration boost raise lift elevate heighten enhance enrich deepen broaden widen extend stretch elongate length