10x Research forecasts that Bitcoin might experience a fluctuation of $20,000 in either direction during the initial phase of Q4 2025.
Bitcoin is currently facing challenges at the $115K resistance level, with technical factors contributing to uncertainty among traders.
Recent on-chain data reveals that whales have offloaded 147,000 BTC this month, intensifying downward pressure on the market.
Meanwhile, it is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain its support at $109,898. Surpassing the $115K mark could lead to testing the next threshold at $120K.
The fourth quarter of 2025 has begun for Bitcoin, a period often associated with significant rallies. However, after declining over 10% from its peak value of $124,000, analysts from 10x Research caution that typical bullish influences are not as strong this year.
This concern is compounded by their prediction that Bitcoin’s price could shift by as much as $20,000 up or down due to market unpredictability.
Will October’s Rally Persist?
Historically known as ‘Uptober,’ October has been one of Bitcoin’s most prosperous months and typically sets a positive tone for Q4. In fact, it has resulted in gains in 10 out of the last 12 years with an average increase of about 21% in price.
However, according to insights from 10x Research when consensus leans heavily one way; markets tend to move contrary. This year appears different as traditional catalysts seem weaker leaving traders vulnerable to potential volatility swings
A Potential Swing: Up or Down By $20k
The analysis conducted by researchers indicates critical levels where mounting technical pressures exist but despite these challenges there remains uncertainty regarding directional breakout possibilities
This week alone saw BTC dip approximately three percent struggling against key resistances around$115k leading experts predict early qtr four may witness movements reaching upwards/downwards twenty thousand dollars
Addition Of On-Chain Data Pressure Points
Apart From Traditional Trading Metrics –On Chain Indicators Are Also Flashing Cautionary Signals With Options Markets Reflecting Bets Against Major Breakouts Which If Materialized Could Heighten Volatility Risks Further Amplified By Whale Activity Selling Off Large Quantities CryptoQuant Reports Indicate Over Hundred Forty-Seven Thousand Bitcoins Were Sold Within Just One Month Exerting Additional Downward Forces Upon Market Dynamics
One reason why bitcoin prices have weakened Whales are net selling -147K bitcoin since August twenty-first Total balance declining fastest monthly rate cycle pic.twitter.com/w7mTI37BF two — Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) September twenty-third Two Thousand Twenty-Five Critical Levels For Monitoring
At Present Moment Trading Value Stands Approximately One Hundred Thirteen Thousand Sixty Dollars Exhibiting Minimal Movements Last Day Or So Analysts Emphasize Importance Maintaining Above Key Support Line Ten Nine Eight Ninety-Eight Sustaining This Level Vital Keeping Bullish Sentiment Alive Conversely Dropping Towards Five Figures May Trigger More Significant Declines Conversely Breaking Past Fifteen-K Resistance Could Open Path Testing Higher Ground Around Twenty-K Thresholds