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With the southwest monsoon season (June-September) set to end with precipitation below 90% of the benchmark long-period average (LPA), and rainfall distribution remaining highly uneven across regions, yields of several crops, particularly paddy, pulses and oilseeds, are likely to be affected, according to experts and agriculture trade sources across the country.
This comes despite the total area sown under kharif crops being only marginally lower than last year’s level. Last year, the kharif production hit a record level of 176 million tonne, thanks to two successive years of above-normal monsoon rains.
Concerns are mounting over the growth and yield prospects of tur, soybean, maize and paddy as these crops enter the flowering stage. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, major producers of tur and soybean, rainfall deficits of 18% and 30%, respectively, coupled with significant intra-regional variations, have prompted the state governments to declare drought in several taluks to provide support to farmers. Sugarcane yields are also likely to be affected in these states.
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The monsoon rainfall deficit stood at 11.9% below the benchmark till Sunday.
“The stage is set for a rapid withdrawal of the monsoon from India, leaving behind a country-wide rainfall deficit of around 12% (against the benchmark). The monsoon remained under a heavy influence of El Niño and counteractive factors such as a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole just didn’t materialise,” said Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK.
Regionally, central India received rainfall in the normal range, while northwest India (-6.3%), east and northeast India (-24.5%) and south peninsular India (-23.4%) recorded below-normal precipitation. Of the nearly 740 districts in the country, 309, or 42%, have so far received “deficient” to “large deficient” rainfall. More than 57%, or 424 districts, have received “normal” to “large excess” precipitation.
The impact has been particularly severe in parts of Maharashtra. Following poor rainfall in the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, the state government has declared drought in 265 of its 358 taluks, or 74% of the state.
“Farmers in these areas are facing losses in soybean, cotton, maize, jowar, bajra, paddy, tur, moong and urad. The district administration has been directed to start crop damage surveys and panchnamas for affected fields,” Dattatray Bharne, Maharashtra’s agriculture minister, told FE.
Similarly, the Karnataka government has declared 23 additional taluks drought-affected for the kharif 2026 season following a scientific assessment and ground-truthing exercise, taking the total number of drought-declared taluks in the state to 124.
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The pressure is also being felt in several parts of southern India, particularly Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, where rainfall is 23% below normal. Rainfall deficits and lower reservoir storage levels have constrained agricultural activity and could affect tur and paddy crops.
According to Crisil Intelligence’s latest assessment, kharif crop acreage is likely to be marginally lower year-on-year, in the range of 0-1%. Overall, the area sown under kharif crops—including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and coarse cereals—stood at 109.49 million hectares (Mha), 1.2% below the previous year’s level, according to the agriculture ministry.
After scanty rainfall in June, which was 36% below the benchmark, the monsoon revived in July, with rainfall 1% above the LPA, within the “normal” range. This revival provided a boost to kharif sowing. However, rainfall in August was again unevenly distributed, with precipitation 16.3% below the LPA. All regions, except the monsoon core zone of central India, received “deficient” rainfall during the month.
For September, the Met Department has forecast “below normal” rainfall, or precipitation below 91% of the benchmark. The Agriculture Ministry is still assessing the production prospects of kharif crops. It will organise a national conference on the rabi campaign on Monday, with state agriculture ministries and other stakeholders participating.
In May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had revised its June-September rainfall forecast to 90% (+/-4%) of the LPA, from 92% in its April forecast. This season’s rainfall is likely to be the lowest since 2014. Previously, monsoon rainfall was in the “deficient” range in 2002 (-20.9%), 2009 (-22%), 2014 (-12%) and 2015 (-14%).
TOPICSKharif cropsThis article was first uploaded on September twenty-seven, twenty twenty-six, at fifty-nine minutes past five in the evening. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd