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India’s rooftop solar market could expand nearly eightfold to 132 GW from the current 17 GW, opening up 115 GW of untapped potential for domestic solar manufacturers, even as monthly residential installations under the PM Surya Ghar scheme fell nearly 12% in August after a record July.
The Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has projected annual rooftop installations of 9-15 GW between 2026 and 2030 and called for clarity on the next phase of PM Surya Ghar by December 2026, ahead of the programme’s March 2027 deadline, to sustain demand and support manufacturing investments.
The projection comes as India’s residential rooftop capacity under PM Surya Ghar reached 16,185.48 MW across 5.46 million households by August, according to JMK Research’s latest renewable-energy update.
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However, monthly residential additions declined 11.6% to 1,407.32 MW in August from 1,592 MW in July, highlighting the need to sustain the installation momentum as the scheme approaches its deadline.
Manufacturing Opportunities
In its report, Residential Rooftop Solar Market: Market Sizing and Growth Outlook, ISMA said the untapped market presents significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers of solar cells, modules, inverters and balance-of-system components.
The assessment is based on residential electricity consumption, household housing characteristics and distribution-utility tariffs. The association said the projected demand aligns with the government’s push to strengthen domestic solar manufacturing and reduce import dependence.
“PM Surya Ghar has played an important role in expanding residential rooftop solar adoption, particularly in markets where project economics remain challenging,” said Amit Manohar, Secretary General, ISMA.
“As the current programme approaches March 2027, providing early clarity on its next phase, including consideration of PM Surya Ghar 2.0, preferably by December 2026, would help maintain market continuity and provide greater visibility to consumers and industry stakeholders,” Manohar said.
State-Wise Performance
The installation data show that state-level demand remains substantial despite the national moderation. Uttar Pradesh led residential additions in August with 228.95 MW, followed by Maharashtra at 212.51 MW and Andhra Pradesh at 192.39 MW, according to JMK Research.
The Centre has set an interim target of reaching 7.5 million households by December 2026, before moving towards the scheme’s 10-million-household goal. The programme, launched in February 2024 with a `75,021-crore outlay, offers central financial assistance of up to `78,000 for rooftop systems of 3 kW or above.
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ISMA said the scheme’s affordability support has expanded adoption beyond states where rooftop solar economics are naturally strongest. Policy continuity beyond March 2027 would give manufacturers greater visibility to plan capacity expansion, investments and domestic supply chains, it added.
TOPICSSolarThis article was first uploaded on September seventeen, twenty twenty-six, at forty minutes past ten in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd