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Rainfall in September, the last month of the southwest monsoon season, is likely to be “below normal”—less than 91% of the benchmark long period average (LPA)—the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, citing strengthening El Nino conditions.
“Most parts of the country are expected to receive deficit rainfall in September, except some areas in east, northeast and central India,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD, said in a briefing. Mohapatra said a moderate to strong El Niño condition prevailed over the equatorial Pacific, these conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months,” IMD said.
The met department noted that spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, some areas of Northwest, Northeast, East, Eastcentral and Southeast Peninsular India, are likely to receive “normal” to “above-normal” rainfall in September.
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With a monsoon deficit of 13.8% against the benchmark after the three months of the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June-September), overall rainfall is likely to be ‘deficient’, below 90% of the benchmark this season. This season’s rainfall is likely to be the lowest since 2009.
Previously, in 2002 (- 20.9%), 2009 (- 18.3%), 2015 (- 12.7%) and 2014 (-10.15), overall rainfall during the monsoon season was in the ‘deficient’ range.
In terms of distribution, during June-August, out of 740 odd districts, 47% or 350 districts have received “deficient” to “large deficient” rainfall. Over 52% or 370 districts have so far received “normal” to “large excess” precipitation. Only the central India region, also referred to as the rainfed monsoon core zone, has received ‘normal’ rainfall, just 3.8% below the benchmark. All other regions show a serious rainfall deficiency: northwest (-10.7%), east/north-east (-25.7%), and south peninsular (-24.2%).
Rainfall in the range of 94-90% of LPA is considered “below normal” and precipitation below 90% of benchmark is categorised as ‘deficient’.
After scanty rainfall received in June at 36% below the benchmark, July saw revival of monsoon rains at 1% above the LPA, which is within the “normal” range and had given a boost to kharif crop sowing. However, the August rainfall was also unevenly distributed with 16.3% below the LPA with all the regions except the monsoon core zone of central India receiving ‘deficient’ rainfall.
In May, the IMD had revised its June-September rainfall projection to 90% of the LPA, from 92% in its April forecast. It also added that there is an 84% probability that rainfall during the season will remain in the “deficient to below-normal” range. These forecasts will continue to hold.
The sowing of Kharif crops -– including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane – across the country till August 28, had been sown in 107.1 million hectare (Mha), just 1.7% down from a year ago. Normal or last five year’s average sown area is 110.4 Mha.
According to consulting firm ICRA’s assessment, the cumulative kharif sowing is set to decline by 1%- 2% Y-o-Y in 2026 from 112.1 Mha in 2025.
Except for a few pockets of eastern India, sowing activities have been completed.
“Patchy rainfall across several regions is expected to hit kharif crop yield, while overall rainfall in September would be crucial for the yield of several crops including pulses and oilseeds,” an official said.
TOPICSECONOMYIMDMonsoonThis article was first uploaded on August thirty-one, twenty twenty-six, at two minutes past ten in the night. © IE Online Media Services (P) Ltd