A historic El Nino is developing in the Pacific, with a 69% chance of the event becoming stronger than any recorded since 1950, the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said.
NOAA stated that El Niño which usually adversely impacts the southwest monsoon (June-September) rains will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. It stated the El Nino phenomenon strengthened during July and is expected to intensify further in the coming months.
“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” it said.
For India, the substantial impact may come after this year’s southwest monsoon has largely ended. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern driven by changes in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific.
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The ministry of earth sciences recently stated in the parliament that El Nino is likely to strengthen further during October-December 2026 and may reach a very strong category.
However the ministry stated that El Nino’s exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor.
Due to the possible impact of El Nino on the monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated in May in its revised forecast that monsoon rainfall is likely to be 90% of the benchmark long period average during the current season, which is in the ‘deficient to below normal’ range.
Overall, monsoon rainfall between June 1 and August 14 was 12.6% below normal, keeping it in the deficient range. Regionally, central India saw precipitation in the normal range, while northwest India (-11%), east and north-east (-27%) and south peninsular India (-20%) remained below normal.
Climate scientists say that for India, El Niño is significant because years in which the phenomenon occurs have historically been associated with below-average southwest monsoon rainfall.
However, there is no one-to-one relationship between the two, and the Indian monsoon is influenced by several other ocean and atmospheric factors.
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“While El Nino generally reduces southwest monsoon rainfall, it has typically favoured northeast monsoon rainfall (October-December) over southern India. There are some early indications of a positive impact of El Nino on this year’s northeast monsoon season,” Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, said.
The IMD has said El Nino could strengthen in September, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn positive, potentially offsetting its adverse impact on the monsoon.
TOPICSEl NinoThis article was first uploaded on August fourteen, twenty twenty-six, at twenty minutes past ten in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd