Risk-on peace trades are back in vogue after the U.S. and Iran held fire on Sunday, sending oil prices lower.
Bitcoin $BTC$65,250.07, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, is back above $65,000, with prices up about 1.2% over 24 hours. Ether (ETH) has risen by over 3% to nearly $1,950 alongside 1% to 2% gains in other top 10 token, including solana (SOL) and $XRP ($XRP).
Futures tied to WTI gapped lower on Monday, trading around 5% lower at $85 as of this writing, while those linked to Nasdaq and S&P 500 traded half a percent higher. Currency markets also showed risk-on trends, with the Aussie dollar and euro gaining against the U.S. dollar.
The United States and Iran paused military strikes against each other for a second consecutive day, creating room for a diplomatic breakthrough. The war, which began in late February, entered a fragile ceasefire in the second quarter, but it quickly unraveled.
Iran reportedly said that it would continue to halt airstrikes as long as the U.S. did the same, marking a tenous start of what appears to be yet another peace process.
“Prices are also responding to macro developments,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, said in an email.
Brent crude’s 4.7% fall to $92.19 has eased some inflation concerns, but the July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting remains the immediate risk. Markets are assigning a 36.3% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase,”
Subburaj added that ether’s over 3% gain shows some rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies, although $BTC’s dominance at 58.6% shows this is not yet a broad-based altcoin trend.
In the meantime, other observers continued to focus on bitcoin’s four-year cycles, saying prices may be bottoming out for the next big bull run.
“The time between each Bitcoin Halving and the bottom of the following Bear Market has been approximately 900 days. The current cycle is already at day 827. Based on this pattern, we can say that Bitcoin is already building its price bottom, with a potential final bottom forming sometime within the next two months,” Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, said on X.