According to analysts, the CryptoQuant signal has indicated that Bitcoin has entered early bull territory for the first time since March 2023.
On May 12, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator transitioned into bullish territory, marking a significant shift from bear-market conditions. This indicator is derived from CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which combines various metrics including the MVRV ratio and NUPL, as well as a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted on X that this change “often indicates that the most challenging phase of correction may have passed and that market dynamics are starting to improve.” At the time of this transition, Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 after experiencing a recovery of approximately 35% from its February lows around $60,000.
Why Analysts Are Hesitant to Declare a Confirmed Bull Market
The last confirmed positive reading occurred in March 2023 and remained consistent until August 2024. During this period, Bitcoin surged from about $20,000 to an all-time high exceeding $73,000. However, it is important to note that there was an exception in March 2022 when the indicator briefly turned green before Bitcoin continued its downward trend well into 2023.
Mati Greenspan—founder of Quantum Economics—described this indicator as more of a regime-shift tool rather than an accurate predictor. He stated: “Historically speaking; it has been most effective in identifying when Bitcoin ceases to act like a bear-market asset.” For this signal to be considered validated further demand for liquidity and price acceptance at elevated levels is necessary.
Moreno highlighted several secondary indicators suggesting exhaustion within the current market setup. To confirm this signal through price action decisively breaking past resistance at $82,000—which has thwarted multiple rally attempts—is essential.
Supporting Data Insights and Perspectives from Hayes
Aiding in support for the regime-shift theory is April’s ETF inflow into spot Bitcoin products which reached an impressive $2.44 billion—the highest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Additionally Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently stands at 4.5—the third-highest level recorded in Bitcoin’s history—with similar readings previously observed during cycle bottoms in both 2015 and 2022.
Arthur Hayes—CIO of Maelstrom—asserts separately that earlier in January or February (around early-2026), Bitcoin already found its cycle bottom near $60k with projections indicating any rally surpassing $90k could lead explosively towards prior all-time highs around $126k. Analyst Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet mentioned that “Bitcoin appears poised for potential breakout towards levels between $85k-$90k,” attributing it largely due strong institutional backing alongside ongoing ETF inflows.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
This indicates potential recovery trends away from bear market behavior.
The previous signals were not always followed by sustained upward movement; they require confirmation through price action.
A decisive break above would strengthen bullish sentiment while failure could indicate further corrections.