Market timing is crucial in the current cycle, presenting investors with a significant test of their patience.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has rebounded into the $79k range, regaining levels not seen since early February.
Nevertheless, it remains over 10% lower than January’s opening price of $87k. This indicates that many early Q1 buyers are still at a loss, keeping the debate about Bitcoin’s bottom very much alive.
Historically speaking, Bitcoin tends to reach its lows after prolonged periods of downward pressure. During the 2017–18 cycle, $BTC experienced nine consecutive months of losses before hitting bottom; similarly structured patterns were observed in the 2021–22 cycle.
This time around, however, Bitcoin has recorded only five red monthly candles so far. This suggests that we may still be in the early stages of its bottoming process.
Interestingly enough, while market patience is evident, it hasn’t yet led to capitulation.
An analyst noted that Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply at a loss is nearing levels last observed during Bitcoin’s 2018 low. However, more realization of losses may be necessary to reach stress levels similar to those seen during last year’s bear market before confirming any bottoming out.
The combination of technical and on-chain indicators suggests that $BTC appears to be navigating through its bottoming phase.
The Debate Over Bull Traps Below $80k for Bitcoin
Apart from technical and on-chain signals indicating potential bearish trends for $BTC, historical patterns also support this outlook.
March and April brought about notable recovery with gains totaling 13.7%, following January and February’s correction which saw declines around 25%.
However, within broader market dynamics—investors often perceive May as weaker since sustained bullish momentum over three consecutive months is rare during bear markets for Bitcoin.
