According to a prominent chart analyst, Bitcoin may plummet to approximately $30,000 before the end of the year. This grim forecast is based on historical patterns associated with U.S. midterm election years and adds fuel to the skepticism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential to reach $250,000 by 2026.
Election Year Patterns Signal Caution
Analyst Merlijn The Trader has highlighted a consistent trend where Bitcoin experiences significant sell-offs in May during midterm election years. Historical data shows that in 2014, Bitcoin dropped by 60%, followed by a 65% decline in 2018 and a staggering 66% drop in 2022.
If this pattern holds true for the upcoming midterm year of 2026, with Bitcoin currently trading around $77,000, it could see its value decrease by more than 60%, potentially landing near $30,000.
THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS.
Sell. In. May.
But only in mid-term election years.
2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%.
2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing to $30K.
May is approaching.The chart doesn’t lie.
The calendar doesn’t either.
pic.twitter.com/qUshNbIHPN– Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 27, 2026
The analysts at Capital Group have observed that market uncertainty tends to rise during midterm elections as campaign activities ramp up in springtime and investors become more risk-averse. This environment historically leads individuals toward caution regarding their investments.
Additively concerning is that Bitcoin is already trading about 40% lower than its record high of roughly $126,000 achieved in October of last year (2025). Despite this downturn, notable advocates like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remain steadfast with their bullish target of $250,000 for the end of this year—a price point requiring over threefold growth from current levels.
Bitcoiners
Those predicting $250k for BTC need to stop consuming mushrooms
This channel does not indicate bullish momentum but rather highlights ongoing bearish trends.
The Factor Report discusses classical chart analysis here https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla
Peter Brandt Urges Caution Among Bulls
Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has taken an especially blunt stance regarding predictions for Bitcoin reaching $250k; he advised those making such forecasts on social media to “stop with the mushrooms.” He pointed out what he sees as a bear flag channel forming on daily charts—indicating continuation rather than reversal from existing downtrends.
Given these technical indicators,$BTC has tested resistance around$79 ,500 but appears poisedfor pullback.A move towardsthe flag’slower boundarynear$69 ,000could occurinMay if sellingpressure resurfaces.BrandtwarnedthatafurtherbreakdownbelowthislevelcouldpotentiallysendBitcoinunder$50 ,000.
The Halving Cycle Data Suggests Peak May Have Passed
The history surrounding halving cycles complicates dismissing bearish sentiments.Basedonhistoricaldata,Bitcoinprice peaks typically materialize12to18monthsafterhalvingevents.Post-2012halving,thepeakwasreachedwithin12months;followingthe2016event,itarrivedin17months;andafterthehalvingin2020,itoccurredwithin18months.
The most recent halving took placeinApriloflastyear(2024),withBitcoinhittingitsall-timehighof$126 ,000aroundOctober(25)—markingthe17to18-monthperiod.Nowthatthepriceisover24monthspastthathalvingsituation,sittingaround$77 ,00,andcontinuingitsdecline,thistimelinealignscloselywithpreviouscyclepeaks,suggestingwemayhavealreadyseenthiscycle’stop.
Nonetheless,someanalystsarenotreadytocallthisabearmarket.Bernsteinanalystsarepointingtowardapotentialrecoverytowardtherangeof$100Kto150K—aviewmoremeasuredthanboththeskepticsandthosechasingtheambitioustargetof$250K.
Featured image from MetaAI; Chart sourced from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
A : Factors suchas market sentiment,economic events,and regulatorychangescan significantly impactBitcoin’s price fluctuations.
A : Analysts often relyon past trends and cycles,taking into accounthistorical datafrom previousyears’performanceduringsimilar conditions,to make informed forecastsaboutfutureprices.
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strong Q3 : Is it possibleforBitcointoreach$a250kbyend-of-year?Q :: While somebullishpredictionssuggestthatreachingaquarter-milliondollarvalueispossible,many analystsremain skepticalgivencurrentmarketconditionsandhistoricalpatternsindicatingpotentialdeclinesbeforethen .
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strong Q4 : What shouldinvestorsconsiderwhentradingCryptocurrencies?Q :
A :
Investorsshouldassessrisk tolerance,diveinto market research,
understandtechnicalanalysis,
stay updatedonregulatory developments,and be cautiousduring periods
of heightenedvolatility .