Bitcoin has surpassed the $75,000 mark, while Gold is nearing $4,800. Both assets are on the rise; however, analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasizes that the key figure to monitor at this moment isn’t either of these prices but rather their ratio.
This ratio unveils a narrative that has only been revealed four times throughout Bitcoin’s history.
The $BTC/Gold Ratio Has Reached Its All-Time Low
The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio indicates how many ounces of gold equate to one Bitcoin. A rare signal concerning this $BTC/Gold relationship has emerged just four times in Bitcoin’s timeline. Each occurrence was followed by a significant surge in $BTC. Van de Poppe elaborates on what typically follows such events. In September 2025, this ratio peaked at 36 before plummeting to 12 by February 2026—a staggering decline of 66% within five months.
“The recent downturn of $BTC against Gold marks the most severe correction in Bitcoin’s history,” van de Poppe noted in his latest analysis.
This situation is categorized as a two-standard deviation outlier—an extreme statistical anomaly that has only occurred during four pivotal moments for Bitcoin: following the Mt. Gox crash in 2015, during the March 2020 COVID market crash, after FTX collapsed in November 2022, and now once again.
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Historical Outcomes Following These Events
The outcomes have shown remarkable consistency. After hitting bottom in late 2022, Bitcoin experienced gains of approximately 44% over three months and an impressive return of about 131% over twelve months. Following the COVID-induced market crash in early 2020 resulted in returns around +90% within three months and an astounding +1,100% after one year.
Averaging across all four historical instances yields results as follows: a gain of roughly +45% after three months; around +120% after six months; and an increase close to +370% after twelve months.
“This represents a critical juncture every cycle where investors should consider allocating into an asset,” he stated. “Currently, many individuals are preoccupied with global events unfolding around them—which is understandable—but it diverges from effective investing strategies.”
Predicting Future Movements for Bitcoin
As it stands today with Bitcoin priced at $75,490—up by approximately10.64 % for the week—van de Poppe suggests that short-term targets lie between $87,500 and $90K within three months’ time frame. By Q3 or Q4 this year he anticipates realistic price projections ranging from $115K to $125K while expressing optimism about a full bull market year for BTC come 2027.
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AlsoRead : TheWorstWeekforGoldin43YearsJustMadeStrongestCaseforBitcoin .
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