A unique on-chain metric has consistently indicated every significant Bitcoin cycle bottom over the last ten years, and it is nearing that crucial threshold once more.
This analysis stems from a monthly Bitcoin chart in conjunction with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which assesses whether the average holder is experiencing unrealized gains or losses. In each of the last three major bear market troughs, this indicator dipped into a similar range and made contact with an upward trendline.
Identifying The Bitcoin Bottom
The recent surge of Bitcoin above $70,000 into the mid-$70,000s has sparked a gradual return of bullish sentiment. While improvements have been noted in the fear and greed index, one lingering question remains: Has the market already hit its bottom, or are we still facing another downturn? Notably, a long-term evaluation of NUPL suggests that an answer may lie within a recurring pattern observed across various market cycles.
NUPL serves as an effective sentiment measure in Bitcoin analysis because it simplifies price movements to determine whether holders are generally profitable or suffering losses. A high reading indicates substantial unrealized profits within the market; conversely, when it declines sharply, those profits vanish and losses take precedence.
The monthly candlestick chart illustrates that significant cycle lows for Bitcoin have reliably occurred when NUPL resets into deeply negative territory while touching a long-term support line. This phenomenon was evident at both the 2015 cycle low and again during 2018’s bear market nadir; it also appeared around 2022’s bottom. Each instance coincided with severely diminished sentiment and substantial reductions in Bitcoin’s price from previous highs.
Currently sitting at 22.9 on NUPL reflects that cryptocurrency investors are still enjoying modest overall profits despite having lost considerable gains accrued during their rise to over $126,000 by October 2025.
Is The Bottom Already Established?
A crypto analyst known as CrypFlow on social media platform X suggests that NUPL is approaching levels indicative of past Bitcoin bottoms once again. If this trend continues to hold true, there may be another necessary reset in sentiment before reaching an authentic long-term washout for the market.
While prices may have already undergone significant corrections thus far, indicators suggest emotional capitulation typical at previous bottoms might not yet be fully realized. It’s possible for NUPL to continue declining until it reaches its trendline before confirming any definitive bottoming out process occurs.
Related Reading: Analyst Claims That Bullish Sentiment Among Investors Is Prevailing And Outlines Next Target
Although no single metric can accurately predict every bottom without exception; however NUPL allows room for speculation regarding one final price drop potentially occurring prior to embarking on another full-cycle expansion phase. As things stand now—Bitcoin trades at $74,220 reflecting an increase of 1.3% over just twenty-four hours since then!
Featured image sourced from Pngtree; chart data courtesy Tradingview.com