India could absorb a significant portion of the 6.9 million tonne of Russian oil (50.577 million barrels) worth €2.3 billion ($2.99 billion) currently stranded at sea, as disruptions to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz and a US waiver for Russian barrels give Moscow a strategic opening to find buyers for its crude.
At its peak in mid-2024, India’s imports of Russian oil exceeded 2 million barrels per day. By February 2026, purchases had fallen to about 1.06 million barrels per day, according to analytics firm Kpler, as India curtailed imports under pressure from Washington. Analysts, however, predict a rebound following the US waiver and the availability of stranded cargoes.
“Russian barrels bound for India. Post-US waiver, Indian refiners are ramping up fast, about 20 million barrels already delivered, with another around 25-30 million on the way,” Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler told the FE.
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US Waiver Strategy
The development comes amid escalating tensions in West Asia that are threatening global energy supply routes. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are putting at risk nearly 60 million tonne of crude oil and 7 million tonne of LNG flows every month, with 89% of crude and 66% of LNG shipments through the chokepoint destined for East and South Asia, including India.
For India—the world’s third-largest oil consumer—this poses direct implications for energy security. Dependence on crude passing through the strait reached as high as 55% in January 2026, highlighting the importance of diversifying supply amid escalating geopolitical risks.
Energy Resilience
“Countries like India, whose dependence on crude oil through the strait reached 55% in January, will seek to secure alternative sources to mitigate domestic supply and price shocks,” analysts said.
Despite these pressures, India remained a key buyer of Russian energy in February. It was the third-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels, purchasing €1.8 billion worth of hydrocarbons, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Crude accounted for 81% (€1.4 billion) of this total, followed by coal (€223 million) and oil products (€121 million).
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Of this, crude oil accounted for 81% or €1.4 billion, followed by coal at €223 million and oil products at €121 million.
The data also showed that Russian fossil fuel export revenues continued to rise despite sanctions and shifting trade routes. In February, monthly export earnings increased 7% month-on-month to €492 million per day, even as export volumes rose by only 1%. Crude oil was the primary driver, with export revenues climbing 13% to €232 million per day. Seaborne crude revenues increased 14% to €173 million per day, alongside a 4% rise in export volumes.
Meanwhile, revenues from seaborne oil products increased 14% to €173 million per day, LNG export revenues rose 7% to €45 million per day, and pipeline gas revenues increased 5% to €63 million per day. Coal export revenues declined 16% to €38 million per day.
Sanctions on Russian oil majors have significantly altered export structures. Following restrictions imposed by the US, EU and UK on Rosneft and Lukoil, seaborne crude export volumes sold by the two companies between December 2025 and February 2026 fell 83% year-on-year to 3.5 million tonne.
Newly created intermediaries filled the gap. RusExport and Redwood Global Supply Group exported 5.5 million tonnes and 11.5 million tonnes of Russian crude, respectively, during the same period. Indian refineries continued processing Russian barrels, with six shipments delivered to the Jamnagar refinery in February. Two of these came from Rosneft before US sanctions, while the remainder were sold through the new trading firms. This marked Jamnagar’s first deliveries of Russian crude after a pause in January.
Shipping patterns also show a growing reliance on Russia’s shadow fleet. In February, G7+ tankers transported 33% of Russian crude exports, while sanctioned shadow tankers carried 56% of the volumes and non-sanctioned shadow vessels accounted for 11%.
CREA said the Gulf crisis could further strengthen Russia’s hand in Asian markets. A week after the escalation of the Iran conflict, Russia’s average daily fossil fuel export revenues rose to €510 million per day — 14% higher than February’s daily average.
The report cautioned that allowing Russian cargoes to reach global markets could also boost Moscow’s fiscal revenues. “Waivers that allow this oil to be sold to global markets will not merely add revenues to Russian coffers but also narrow the discount on Russian crude, therefore generating more tax revenue for the Kremlin,” it said.
With Gulf oil and LNG flows under threat, analysts say Asian buyers–particularly India- may increasingly turn to alternative suppliers, potentially reshaping global energy trade and deepening Russia’s role in the region’s crude market.
TOPICSRussian OilThis article was first uploaded on March fifteen, twenty twenty-six, at twenty minutes past nine in the night.