Bitcoin’s recent surge nearing the $70,000 mark—trading around $68,000 as Hong Kong reached midday—seems to be driven more by traders adjusting their positions than by strong market confidence. According to market maker Enflux, this uptick mainly resulted from short sellers covering their bets after adopting a bearish stance amid geopolitical tensions.
Enflux explained in a note to CoinDesk that “the market isn’t factoring in disaster, nor is it anticipating a quick resolution.” Over the weekend, shorts increased their bets on Iran-related news, pushing Bitcoin down toward $63K. However, when the situation didn’t escalate into a wider regional conflict impacting Gulf and Dubai trade routes immediately, short sellers began to unwind their positions.
Crypto assets tend to respond more swiftly than traditional markets during geopolitical disturbances. Enflux highlighted that “when conflicts intensify or sanctions become stricter, investors seek ways out quickly. In uncertain times, Bitcoin acts as a release valve for capital pressure.”
Institutional interest continues to provide significant support for Bitcoin’s price. In the last five trading days alone, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of approximately $1.45 billion.
Boomers step up again with bitcoin ETFs pulling in $1.5 billion over five days following another strong session yesterday—the largest influx recently—with nearly all original ten spot ETFs active showing both breadth and depth after enduring a 50% drawdown and many still underwater.… pic.twitter.com/eF0VJqiPZ0
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 3, 2026
Onchain metrics and derivatives data indicate that while the market is stabilizing somewhat, robust conviction has yet to return fully.
A recent Glassnode report noted momentum indicators are starting to rebound from prior weakness: Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) climbed from 36 last week up to about 41 but remains below the neutral threshold of 50 needed for stronger bullish momentum.
The spot trading environment has also improved noticeably; volume rose from roughly $6.6 billion last week to about $9.6 billion now. Moreover, buying and selling activity has balanced out more evenly compared with earlier aggressive sell-offs easing off gradually.
Caution persists within derivatives markets as well: Glassnode pointed out that costs associated with holding leveraged long positions have decreased sharply; however futures data still show sellers outweighing buyers—a sign leveraged traders remain wary.
This cautious sentiment extends into prediction markets too: The likelihood of Bitcoin dropping below $65K in March fell by 11 percentage points down to 73%, chances of hitting $60K declined by 10 points reaching 41%, while another Polymarket contract indicating whether BTC will reach $60K before climbing back above $80K dropped by twelve points settling at around 61% probability.
Taken together these insights suggest that although Bitcoin currently enjoys some support levels preventing further sharp declines,the overall trader sentiment remains tentative without clear expectations either for sustained rallies or deeper corrections.