The cryptocurrency market has been displaying inconsistent trends, with overall weakness dominating much of the year.
Amid these challenging conditions, Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are starting to signal caution, as a critical metric points toward the possibility of an impending bear market.
On Monday, February 16th, CryptoQuant—a platform specializing in crypto analytics—released on-chain data highlighting that a key profitability measure has dropped back to levels historically associated with significant bear markets.
Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR Approaches 0.92
The data reveals that Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has sharply declined into the range between 0.92 and 0.94. This particular threshold has previously coincided with major downturns during past cycles.
The aSOPR metric gauges whether Bitcoins being moved across the network are sold at profits or losses.
This trend is further supported by ongoing institutional withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs, where steady outflows have persisted over time.
A reading below 1.0—as currently observed—indicates that investors are generally selling their coins at a loss on average.
However, analysts note that similar dips occurred in both 2019 and early 2023; these periods were marked by intense selling pressure and widespread capitulation as traders exited positions amid deteriorating sentiment.
Can Bitcoin Bounce Back?
The analyst also shared charts demonstrating how today’s crypto market structure mirrors earlier transitional phases seen before previous recoveries or declines.
Historically, multiple cycle lows formed near the same zone around 0.92-0.93 for this metric—implying it is once again nearing critical bear territory based on past patterns.
Differing from mid-cycle corrections where aSOPR quickly rebounds above one point zero (1.0), this current decline reflects prolonged weakness accompanied by ongoing realization of losses among holders.
Given this sustained downward momentum across broader markets, experts warn that if Bitcoin fails to push its aSOPR back above the crucial threshold soon, recovery chances may diminish significantly.
This raises growing concerns that what might have started as just another correction could evolve into an extended bearish phase for cryptocurrencies overall.