The trajectory for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high and establish fresh price benchmarks hinges on whether spot ETF inflows regain momentum after a volatile start to 2026, which has tested the resilience of institutional demand in this post-ETF landscape.
According to CryptoSlate, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $1.29 billion between December 15 and December 31, 2025, illustrating that significant redemptions can still occur late in the year.
The opening full trading week of January 2026 continued this risk-averse trend, with spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively losing $681 million.
Data from Farside Investors reveals several substantial negative flow days during this period: -$486.1 million on January 7, -$398.8 million on January 8, and -$250 million on January 9.
Date (2026)
Spot BTC ETF Net Flow (USD millions)
Jan. 7
-486.1
Jan. 8
-398.8
Jan. 9
-250.0
Jan.14
+840.6
Jan .20
-479 .7
Jan .21
-708 .7
Jan .22
-32 .2
< tr <td Jan 23 <td -103 5
This back-and-forth movement highlights how swiftly inflows can resume or halt depending on shifts in risk appetite.
The most notable single-day inflow occurred on January14 when approximately $840 million entered as Bitcoin traded above $97,000.
A reversal followed later that month; from January20 throughJanuary23 there were net outflows amounting to about $1. 32 billion, with – $708. 7million recordedonJanuary21.This recent fluctuation tests whether sustained creations can extend beyond short-lived price-driven spikes.
The Spot ETF Era Alters Market Dynamics
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in2024 marked a pivotal shiftin market structure,making these flow figures meaningful by channeling demand through regulated instruments rather than futures-based ‘paper’Bitcoin products used previously.
This evolution raises an important question for traders eyeing the next peak: does it disrupt the traditional halving cycle?
Certainly,it modifiesthe tempoand transparencyof repositioning since flows tendto react moreto macroeconomic factors rather than drive them directly.
The historical benchmark for “price discovery” remains relevant.Bitcoin reached an all-time highof$126, 100inOctober 2025,a surge linkedto gainsinU.S.equitiesandETF inflows amida weakening U.S.dollarthatmonth.
This October peak coincided with past cycles where highs emergedafter halvings, CryptoSlateprojectedlastyear.
Looking ahead,the key question iswhether breaking abovethe October 2025 ceiling will happensooner viaa sustained multi-weekETF buying spree under stable policy conditionsoutside typical cycle periods.
If not,the flows might remain opportunistic,timing new highs closer tothe nextcycle milestones—potentiallynot until2019followinghistoricalpatternsorlate20127ifthepreviouscyclerepeatswhenBitcoinhitnewhighsjustbeforeahalving.
Macro Liquidity and Interest Rate Expectations Shape Outlook
A near-term macroeconomic backdrop provides measurable context.For instance,in the Federal Reserve’s weekly H4–.1 report endingJanuary21,“‘&lsquoSecurities held outright’&rsquo&rdquo stood atapproximately$6. 285 trillion,